Our Changing Globe

Archive for the ‘Campaign’ Category

Steven M. Gillon: President Gingrich? Not as Scary as It Sounds

www.huffingtonpost.com11/22/11

What would a Gingrich presidency look like? I would suggest that it would not be as radical as liberals fear or as revolutionary as conservatives hope. He would govern as a centrist conservative who would likely propose bold …

Newt Gingrich: "I Do Study History, Unlike the President, I Study …

www.hapblog.com11/26/11

Newt Gingrich: "I Do Study History, Unlike the President, I Study American History" (Video). At a town hall in Naples, Florida, Newt Gingrich tells a large crowd why he wants to debate Barack Obama in a number of …

---

This is Part 12 of a look at possible GOP candidates that might run well against Obama in 2012.

Part 1 looked at Mitch Daniels Part 2 looked at Tim Pawlenty

Part 3 looked at Chris Christie Part 4 looked at Mitt Ronney

Part 5 looked at Sarah Palin Part 6 looked at Mike Huckabee

Part 7 looked at Rudy Giuliani Part 8 looked at Michele Bachman

Part 9 looked at Donald Trump Part 10 looked at Paul Ryan

Part 11 looked at Ron Paul Part 12 looked at Newt Gingrich

Part 13 looked at Herman Cain Part 14 looked at Rick Santorum

Part 15 looked at Rick Perry Part 16 looked at Jon Huntsman

Bill Clinton Praises Newt: "He’s Articulate And Attracts Independents".

“He’s articulate and he tries to think of a conservative version of an idea that will solve a legitimate problem", Clinton said, by way of explaining the Gingrich resurgence.

"For example, I watched the national security debate last night. And Newt said two things that would make an independent voter say, ‘Well, I gotta consider that’".

---

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich announced his candidacy for President yesterday (May 12 2011) and used Twitter and Facebook along with high profile interviews to spread the word.

Newt Gingrich came out swinging at President Obama in his first TV interview after announcing his candidacy for president, telling Fox News’ Sean Hannity that,

“This is not about one person in the Oval Office. This is about millions of Americans deciding that together we can win the future with the right policies leading to the right outcomes”, Gingrich said. “And then we have to win the argument that President Obama has the wrong policies, and they lead to the wrong outcomes”.
“.
Gingrich had fueled months of speculation about his intentions by holding off on an official announcement, but earlier Wednesday he spread the word by that he was in the race for the Republican nomination.

He said his first executive order would be to eliminate Obama’s so-called policy “czars”, but clarified that his greater goal would be to balance the budget over several years by growing the economy.

A new Gallup poll suggests that although many Americans know who Gingrich is, he will have a lot of work to do if he’s going to get their vote.

Among Republicans 84% recognize his name, but his Positive Intensity Score is only 11%, which is below this week’s average of 13% for all Republican contenders.

Mike Huckabee received the highest Positive Intensity Score at 24%.

Donald Trump, with 98% name recognition, had the lowest Positive Intensity Score of any of the 13 candidates polled by Gallup this week and it was zero.

Europe a dagger pointed at Obama's reelection « The Enterprise Blog

blog.american.com11/16/11

While Europe's problems aren't Obama's fault, voters would hold him accountable for an economy too weak to withstand overseas shocks. Perhaps, they … 24 Responses to “Europe a dagger pointed at Obama's reelection” …

Virginia – A Microcasm of Obama's Re-election Problems

michael-in-norfolk.blogspot.com10/21/11

Virginia – A Microcasm of Obama's Re-election Problems. The GOP presidential candidate line up continues to be a circus where the only sane candidates – Romney and Huntsman in my view – do not score well with the …

---

 

If Obama’s to get reelected, then he’ll need to overcome five major issues, and if he doesn’t, then he’ll lose, almost regardless of who is GOP opponent is!

His first and major problem is:

Jobs!

The single most important statistic affecting Obama’s reelection chances is the unemployment rate.

In April it stood at 9% which is up from 8.8% in March and that’s well above the historical norm for modern presidents who were reelected.

In March, a Wall Street Journal survey of economists predicted unemployment would be down to 7.7% by Election Day, but even that’s only just one-tenth of a percent lower than it was in November 1976, when President Ford lost to Jimmy Carter.

And, according to a Los Angeles Times analysis, that’s still higher than on two additional occasions when an incumbent president went down to defeat, in part because of high unemployment.

In 1980, President Carter lost to Ronald Reagan when unemployment was at 7.5%, and in 1992, a 7.4% unemployment rate helped Bill Clinton defeat George H. W. Bush.

In the post-World War II era, unemployment has only topped 7% four times on Election Day, and the incumbent has won only once and that was: President Reagan in 1984, when unemployment was at 7.2%.

The second problem is:

Obamacare!

A Rasmussen report issued on May 9 2011 found that support for repeal of the national health care law had rebounded after falling below 50% for the first time since it was passed by Congress in March of last year, and it now indicates that 57% of likely U.S. voters now favor at least a partial repeal of the law.

Just 36% oppose repeal, and those new findings include 44% who strongly favor repeal of the measure as against 26% who are strongly opposed.

If Romney is not the nominee, then the individual mandate is going to be an even bigger liability for Obama, and especially as the issue of its constitutionality works its way through the courts.

And in a bad piece of timing for the president, the case, or cases could reach the Supreme Court right in the thick of the 2012 campaign.

If the high court strikes down the individual mandate, or even the whole law, before the election, then that would be a huge embarrassment for Obama.

The third problem is:

Gas Prices

And I really wasn’t sure if I should make high gas prices the #1 issue because Americans hate them!

The fall in global oil prices at the end of the first week of May might well signal relief for consumers at the pump, but the spike in US gas prices to $4 a gallon, after a steady escalation in the cost of crude oil, remains a source of concern for the White House, both in its impact on consumers and the overall economy, as well as on Obama’s political fortunes.

Obama did say that, “that there’s no silver bullet to bring prices down”, and he did take very minimal action.

On April 21, he announced, “a Justice Department task force to monitor oil and gas markets for evidence of fraud or manipulation”, but it should perhaps be remembered that Obama has said that, “Gas prices at $4 would be OK”.

And the higher the gas price, the easier it will be for Obama to push his clean engergy agenda, but he’ll likely run out of time on that one.

The fourth problem is:

The Budget Deficit And National Debt

Obama ranks way down there when it comes to his handling of soaring deficits, and a dangerously high federal debt.

First, he kicked the can down the road by setting up a bipartisan fiscal commission, and after the commission came out with its recommendations, he ignored them!

And his proposed fiscal year 2012 budget, which was released in February, was widely panned for failing to address medical entitlements which are the biggest drivers of the looming crisis.

Then when Rep. Paul Ryan (R) of Wisconsin, chairman of the House Budget Committee, put out a budget plan with dramatic cuts, Obama simply responded with a “framework” for deficit reduction that was notably vague on how it would achieve promised major savings in Medicare and Medicaid.

And the latest Gallup poll shows 61% disapproval and only 33% approval!

Finally And Fifthly

Home Foreclosures

The Obama administration’s efforts to alleviate the home mortgage crisis have fallen way short of expectations.

In data released May 6, the departments of Housing and Urban Development and the Treasury reported that only 670,000 homeowners have been granted permanent mortgage modifications since the inception of the Home Affordable Modification Program in 2009, and of those, 83,000 subsequently have been disqualified.

The plans goal was to help 3 to 4 million homeowners.

Persistent high unemployment continues to put homeowners at risk of foreclosure and home values continue to decline.

Nationally, home prices are down 20% from their 2007 peak, and they’re only expected to hit rock bottom in 2012.

And according to the real estate data firm Zillow Inc., “In the first quarter of 2011, house prices fell 3% compared with the previous quarter, and more than 28% of single-family home owners owe more than their house is worth”.

All of the above is very bad news for Obama, in spite of what you see and hear in the left wing dominated media, and the question begs to be asked, “Can he overcome the five problems?”.

And the honest answer is, “Probably not”.

If he’s lucky he may overcome one or two of the problems, but that most likely won’t be enough.