“The Bank Bailouts Have Created More Risk in The System”.

Neil Barofsky, who is the special inspector general for  TARP (The Troubled Asset Relief Program)  states quite clearly in a quarterly report that was released to Congress last Sunday, January 31, 2010 that the problems that led to the last financial crisis have not yet been addressed, and in some cases have actually grown worse.
“Even if TARP saved our financial system from driving off a cliff back in 2008, absent meaningful reform, we are still driving on the same winding mountain road, but this time in a faster car”.

And referring to the “Too big to fail approach” he added, “The government’s bailout of financial institutions deemed “too big to fail” has created a risk that the United States could face a worse fiscal meltdown in the future, and the $700 billion financial bailout has encouraged more risk-taking because bank executives, who are still receiving massive bonuses, figure the government will come to the rescue the next time they steer their ships nearly aground”.

The report warns that these supports mean the government has done more than simply support the mortgage market, and in many ways has become the mortgage market, with the taxpayer shouldering the risk that had once been borne by the private investor.

“The government has stepped in where the private players have gone away and if we take government resources and replace that market without addressing the serious underlying concerns, there really is a risk of artificially pushing up home prices in the coming years”.

The report also revealed that, while the Obama administration pledged to spend $75 billion to prevent foreclosures, that only a tiny fraction of it amounting to just over $15 million has been spent so far and figures indicate that under the Making Home Affordable program, only about 66,500 borrowers, or only 7% of those who signed up had completed the process as of December.

Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, who is the ranking member of the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee said, “The market mentality now seems fixed that the U.S. government will continue to step in and bail out giant financial institutions. The IG’s findings confirm my decision to oppose releasing $350 billion in TARP funds last year and my recent vote to terminate the program altogether”.

And Rep. Darrell Issa, R-Calif., who is the ranking member on the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee added, “The SIGTARP’s report is just another reminder of how Congress and the administration have ignored the role that politics and government played in causing the housing crisis and the economic collapse while pursuing other regulatory reforms will not fix the underlying problem”.

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Major financial crises have occurred many times in the United States, and the one in 1929 wasn’t the first, and the present one won’t be the last.

The earliest one on record was in 1792, and there were several crises in the 19th century and also in the 1980′s

In short, recession cycles should be understood to be a normal part of living in a world of inexact balances, one in which there is an attempt to balance supply and demand.

The present world-wide economic crisis, which was caused by the United States wasn’t simply a result of unexpectedly large losses in subprime mortgages or because many of those loans were securitized in complex bonds.

In retrospect, it would seem that the major contributor to the collapse, was what are known as repurchase agreements, which are commonly known as repos.

A repo is a form of short-term borrowing for dealers in government securities. The dealer sells government securities to investors, usually on an overnight basis, and buys them back the following day.

For the party selling the security, and agreeing to repurchase it in the future it is a repo, and for the party on the other end of the transaction, the one who is buying the security and agreeing to sell in the future, it is a reverse repurchase agreement.

Repos are classified as a money-market instrument and they are usually used to raise short-term capital and the Fed uses repos to manage the aggregate reserves of the banking system.

The size of the repo market continually varies so it’s impossible to state its actual size, but it’s generally thought to hover around the $10 trillion mark at any given time.

Banks rely heavily on repro loans, and what caused the collapse of Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers, was that the repo market panicked because of rising doubts about subprime securities, and loans suddenly became more expensive, or totally unavailable.

So What Can Be Done?

The Obama administration has a plan to protect the country and the world from the next financial crisis, and it can basically be divided into three parts.

1) Stiffer Capital Requirements

Some banks and other financial institutions would be considered too important to fail, because their collapse would pose a threat to the country’s financial stability.

Citigroup, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs and similar institutions would I imagine, be on the government’s most protected species list.

The companies on the list would face stiffer capital requirements in the form of shareholders’ investment, with the idea being that greater capital would provide a larger buffer against losses and a crises.

It might be of interest to note however, that at the time of writing that none of America’s biggest banks are any longer in the top three world-wide.

The top three banks in the world by market capitalization are;

1) Industrial and Commercial Bank of China
2) China Construction Bank
3) Bank of China

Citibank and Bank of America are not even on the list of the top twenty.

Two Canadian banks, Royal Bank of Canada (RY) and Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) have recently made it to the list.

Australia also has two banks listed, and in addition to the Chinese banks, the importance of emerging markets is confirmed by the presence of Itau Unibanco Banco Multiplo (ITU) and Banco Bradesco (BBD).

The problem with the administration’s protected species plan, is that the very largest financial institutions in America, would effectively become protected and pampered wards of the state and they would most likely squeeze out the smallest ones and lenders would compensate by raising their interest rates or by only lending to the safest borrowers.

2) The Policing Of Unethical Lending Practices

The administration foresees the creation of a Consumer Financial Protection Agency that would police what appear to be unethical lending practices, and ensure that loan documents for mortgages, auto loans and other types of consumer credit are comprehensible.

* The Securities and Exchange Commission would still retain power over the stock markets.

3) Changing The Rules

Financial firms that issue securitized bonds such as bundles of mortgages, auto loans and other credits, would be required to hold 5% of the bonds themselves, the thinking being that this would cause sellers to examine loans more carefully.

In early 2007, when the problems of subprime mortgages and repos first emerged, few if any regulators foresaw the coming meltdown, so the question needs to be asked, “should we trust government regulators instead of bankers, traders and money managers?”.

Due to their past failings, it would seem that we shouldn’t.

The dangers of overregulation should generally not be ignored or minimalized, but especially so in the U.S. whose economy is anchored on risk-taking and expansion.

We don’t yet know exactly what will cause the next financial crisis in the U.S. but its roots are already clearly foreseeable.

By 2019, the U.S. federal debt is expected to be $11 trillion and right now, the Chinese, who are presently supporting the U.S. economy are already preparing a retreat from the dollar.

China has now called for the creation of a new currency to eventually replace the dollar as the world’s standard, and is proposing, if not demanding, a sweeping overhaul of global finance that truly reflects the developing nations’ growing unhappiness with America’s role in the world economy.

If China decides to pull the plug, which is increasingly likely, we will soon understand what caused America’s upcoming financial collapse, but many will say that they didn’t see it coming.

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Other banks which are said to have met government approval are
JPMorgan, American Express Co., Bank of New York Mellon Corp., BB&T Corp., Capital One Financial Corp., Northern Trust Corp., State Street Corp. and U.S. Bancorp.

The repayments come almost eight months after the Treasury provided nine banks with the first $125 billion from the $700 billion TARP fund.

Amongst banks which didn’t win approval are Bank of America Corp., Citigroup Inc. and Wells Fargo & Co.

The Treasury announced today, June 9th, that combined with repayments that have already been received from twenty other firms, the government will have gotten back about $70 billion so far, and added that dividend payments on the shares issued to the government under the Capital Purchase Program total about $4.5 billion to date, including $1.8 billion from the ten banks that have now been released.

The treasury statement also noted that, “Proceeds from the TARP repayments will help reduce the federal government’s borrowing and the national debt”. “The repayments also boost the cushion to respond to any future financial instability that might otherwise jeopardize economic recovery”. “Firms buying back the government’s preferred shares also have the right to repurchase warrants the Treasury holds at fair market value”.

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President Obama’s recent claim to homeowners, that refinancing their mortgage loans at a lower rate, equates to a tax cut, doesn’t ring true for many tax experts.

Obama said at a recent press conference that the housing plan his administration had launched, had “already contributed to a spike in the number of homeowners who are refinancing their mortgages, which is the equivalent of another tax cut. The main message we want to send today is that there are 7 to 9 million people across the country who right now could be taking advantage of lower mortgage rates and that is money in their pocket”.

What Obama failed to mention however is that unlike the housing boom that led to the current financial crisis, this time, only borrowers with strong credit ratings and stable jobs will be able to save money if they refinance.

Obama’s announcement caused many tax analysts, including Gil Charney, who is an analyst for The Tax Institute at H&R Block to shout “foul”;

“While there could be overall savings by refinancing and lower monthly payments, there also could be reduced tax benefits as less interest is paid. Also refinancing could extend the period before the mortgage is fully paid off, so this might not be desirable for someone who wants to be mortgage-free. Therefore, someone about to make a financial decision should take their complete financial picture into account, not just their tax situation”.

In fairness to Obama, some analysts like Mark Steber, who is vice president of tax resources at Jackson Hewitt Tax Service did express a more supportive viewpoint, “While generally there is no tax advantage to refinancing at a lower rate, an individual can save on the total out of pocket costs each year over the life of the loan. Though a tax bill will actually increase after refinancing, the increase in taxes may be less than half of the total difference in interest paid, so the taxpayer may save more money than their taxes increase, therefore resulting in net savings”.

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The just released government’s “stress-test” results suggest that ten of the nation’s nineteen biggest banks will need a total of around $75 billion in new capital in order to withstand losses if the recession worsens.

According to the tests, some of the largest banks are stable, whilst others will need billions more in capital.

Meanwhile, government officials are stressing that the banking industry is still viable in spite of its vulnerability, but concur that it will need massive injections of capital if there’s to be an economic rebound.

The official line is, that none of the banks will be allowed to fail, and that it’s hoped that the tests will restore investors’ confidence, that not all the nation’s banks are seriously weak, and that those that are can be strengthened.

Kevin Logan, who is chief U.S. economist at Dresdner Kleinwort said, “Looking at the big picture, you can say that things aren’t so bad for the financial industry as a whole. The banking industry is not going to make a lot of money going forward, and that’s a dilemma for keeping banks solvent and getting them lending”.

The ten banks that need more capital, have until June 8th to develop a plan and to have it approved by their regulators, and analysts say that the test results sketched an encouraging but cautious picture of the banks.

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The Federal Reserve noted in a survey of loan officers that was released on Monday, May 6, that demand for prime mortgages rose in the first quarter for the first time since early 2007, and this was in spite of the fact that many banks tightened their requirements for home loans.

The increase in demand comes as 30-year mortgage rates fell to an average 4.78% last week.

Other details of the survey state that, about one half of U.S. banks tightened their lending standards on prime mortgages, which is up from about 45% from that given in a survey that was released in early February.

65% of banks reported having tightened their standards on non-traditional mortgages, such as adjustable-rate loans with multiple payment options, up from 50% in the last survey, and nearly 60% of banks said they tightened their requirement on credit card loans in the past three months.

The Fed’s survey was based on responses from fifty three domestic banks and twenty three foreign banks.

Additional good news was also reported by the National Association of Realtors which announced that its Pending Home Sales Index showed that pending sales of existing homes climbed upward in March, making two consecutive months of increases.

The NAR attributed a rise of 3.2% in signed contracts to “a flood of first-time home-buyers taking advantage of excellent mortgage interest rates”.

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Although banks can borrow at interest rates that are nearly as low as Treasury yields, they’ve been cutting credit lines and raising their fees, and the average annual percentage rate offered to new card customers in the U.S. is now 14.2 percent.

Just a few years ago, a booming economy kept loan losses in check and banks perfected marketing tricks and introduced the concept of teaser rates, and in just eight years Americans received around 44 billion pieces of mail jammed into their mail-boxes that promoted credit cards.

It’s perhaps understandable that banks need healthy credit card earnings to ensure their survival because they can no longer rely on the securities markets that caused the economy to collapse, but it now appears likely that many of them will lose their long-term customers after the economy stabilizes.

Credit cards have become a mainstay of U.S. banking in recent years because the offer a steady income without the volatility that goes with trading and investment banking, but loans on credit cards are unsecured, and the industry absorbed about $55 billion in credit card defaults last year, which is up from $43 billion in 2007.

Fed rules, which will curb sudden changes in interest rates are set to go into effect on July 1, 2010 – but many Democrats in Congress are now pushing to have the legislation advanced, and they also want greater built-in consumer protection.

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Median home-sale prices in March were around $7,000 higher than in February.
But they are still far lower than they were a year ago.

Some banks have started returning bailout money amid reports of better than expected profits in the first quarter of 2009, and the stock market has rebounded since early March.
But, the value of the Dow Jones Industrial Average is still at around 60% of what is was a year ago.

The administration claims that 2,000 new transportation projects have already been approved under the stimulus package.
But the construction sector lost 626,000 jobs between December 2008 and March 2009.

And whilst we’d truly love to believe that the economic crisis has bottomed out, the IMF (International Monetary Fund) estimates that the global economy will contract by 1.3% in 2009 and the U.S. economy by 2.8% which would be the most since 1946.

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Freddie Mac reported that the rate for a 30-year fixed home loan fell to 4.80 percent from 4.82 percent a week earlier, whilst the 15-year fixed rate remained unchanged at 4.48 percent.

The central bank is attempting to drive down interest rates by cutting the supply of outstanding mortgage bonds, thereby boosting their price and lowering their yields, thus allowing banks to reduce their rates on new mortgages, whilst continuing to sell mortgage securities at a profit.

The not so good news is that sales of previously owned U.S. homes fell in March, after climbing by the biggest amount in more than five years just one month earlier.

Purchases decreased by 3% to an annual rate of 4.57 million, which was lower than the 4.71 million which was forecast, and prices were down 12% from a year ago, with distressed properties accounting for about 50% of all sales.

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The February prices were still 6.5% lower than a year earlier and were pretty much in line with estimates, and also a recent statement by Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Donald Kohn, “As demand firms, and once inventories of houses, and a broad range of goods are brought into line with sales, economic activity should begin to stabilize,”

The Mortgage Bankers Association’s index of applications to purchase a home or refinance a loan increased by 5.3% last week and a National Association of Realtors report notes that home sales rose by 5.1% in February.

The California and Florida metropolitan areas led the U.S. in foreclosures in the first quarter of this year, and Bruce Norris, who is a principal with the Norris Group said, “Whatever damage has been done in California is only going to get worse because there is a glut of homes owned by lenders that aren’t yet on the market. These homes are like a shadow inventory that is likely to drag down prices further when they come onto the market”.

Norris’s comments are supported by comments on the National Association of Realtors website which states, “U.S. home prices probably will fall 5.1% this year to $188,500, less than the 9.3% plunge in 2008, according to the real estate group. Home resales probably will rise 1% to 4.96 million after a 13% drop last year”.

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