Our Changing Globe » Debt

How Many Illegals Are In The US And What Is The Cost?

Michael Redbourn — Fri, 27 Jan 2012 19:41:47 +0000

Obama Slaps Intimidation Lawsuit on South Carolina Over Illegals

www6.lexisnexis.com11/7/11

States and localities bear the brunt of the costs that illegal aliens impose on taxpayers. … State and local costs for services siphoned by illegal aliens and their anchor babies now total $391 million a year in South Carolina.

Illegal Aliens Not “Innocent Immigrants”; U.S., Dem. Party Wasting …

neosecularist.com1/27/12

Why would we want to reelect a man, Barack Obama, who would give the potential illegal alien that much more incentive to become a criminal illegal alien? Isn't it more cost-effective to the American taxpayer to advance a “no …

How Many Illegals In The US And What Is The Cost?

It’s obviously impossible to come up with exact figures because illegal aliens don’t reply to census questionnaires, but the U.S. Border Patrol Union Local 2544 in Tucson, Ariz., says the total number of illegal immigrants in the U.S. today is somewhere between 12 million and 15 million.

And basing its figures on the "Current Population Survey", which is a monthly assessment of about 50,000 households jointly conducted by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Census Bureau, The Pew Hispanic Center estimates that there are between 11.5 million to 12 million "unauthorized migrants" living in the U.S. today.

Bear Stearns (download pdf) says however that based on school enrollments, foreign remittances, border crossings, and housing permits that, "there is significant evidence that the census estimates of undocumented immigrants may be capturing as little as half of the total undocumented population", meaning that there might well be as many as 20 million illegal immigrants in the US today.

Estimated Number Of Illegal Aliens – State by State

How Much Are Illegal Aliens Costing The U.S. ?

The following estimates are in billions and not millions!

Illegal aliens are said to be costing the welfare system between $14 billion and $22 billion every year – Federation for American Immigration Reform

Medicaid use by illegal aliens costs the U.S. 7.5 billion every year- Center for Immigration Studies

In 2006, illegal aliens sent an estimated $65 BILLION in remittances back to their countries of origin, to their families and friends – rense.com

The following information was sourced from and interview on - Lou Dobbs Tonight

Primary and secondary school education for illegal aliens is said to be costing $12 billion dollars a year.

Anchor (American-born children of illegal aliens) children another $27 billion a year.

The incarceration of illegal aliens – $1.2 billion a year and 28% of all federal prison inmates are reckoned to be illegal aliens.

Every single year a massive $190 billion dollars is spent on welfare and social services for illegal aliens.

It is thought that illegal aliens cause American wages to be suppressed by around $200 billion dollars per year.

The above figures are not 100% accurate of course, but they’re based on extensive research, so it’s probably safe to say that illegal immigration is costing the U.S. around $500 billion a year and $500 billion is half a trillion dollars!

And How Much Do Illegal Immigrants Pay in Taxes?

Most experts agree that many illegal immigrants are paying taxes to Uncle Sam, but just how much they pay is hard to determine because the federal government doesn’t fully tally it.

"The latest available figures indicate however that it will amount to billions of dollars in federal income, Social Security and Medicare taxes this year and one rough estimate puts the amount of Social Security taxes alone at around $9 billion per year". – MSNBC

So What’s To Be Done?

Mass Deportation?

According to The National Policy Institute, the total cost of mass deportation would be between $206 and $230 billion, and you can download a free copy of the The National Policy Institute ebook entitled, deportation if you’re interested in more details.

How Much Overall Support Is There For Reducing Immigration?

What Steps Was It Recommended That The Government Take?

In 1995, the U.S. Commission on Immigration Reform asked the National Research Council / National Academy of Sciences to study the economic and fiscal effects of immigration.

Here are the principle findings of their extensive analysis, published in 1997 as The New Americans: Economic, Demographic, and Fiscal Effects of Immigration (ISBN 0-309-06356-6).

Their recommendations on Illegal Immigration were to.

Restrict the eligibility of illegal aliens for publicly-funded assistance.

Implement a nationwide system for easily verifying authorization to work (specifically, a computerized registry based on a secure
social security card).

Increase the resource for border management and interior enforcement.

Is There The Political Will To Implement Either Of The Above?

Obviously not, because in spite of a recent Pew survey (and all other polls that I’ve seen confirm it) showing that 73%of those polled approved of Arizona’s new immigration plan, and in spite of many other States wanting to adopt it, the Obama administration is seeking to have Arizona’s new law ruled unlawful.

The Answer To The Question

A Mexican journalist by the name of Evangelina Hernandez asked in Denver recently, "Illegal aliens pay rent, buy groceries, buy clothes. What Happens to your country’s economy if 20 million people go away?".

The answer would of course be, that the U.S. would be close to $500 billion a year better off, and

US Watchdog Say Taxpayers Still Owed $132.9 Billion From Bailouts

Michael Redbourn — Thu, 26 Jan 2012 19:35:54 +0000

Bailed-Out Companies Pressured TARP Pay Czar To Keep …

www.huffingtonpost.com1/24/12

The official overseeing executive pay for bailout firms limited cash compensation and made some reductions in pay, but still approved compensation packages in the millions, the TARP (Troubled Asset Relief Program) inspector general said in the report. Former U.S. pay … In Mexico in the mid-'90s Wall Street engineered a currency coup that tripled the debt owed by small businesses and family farms and also allowed for them to be massively ratejacked on top of it.

Taxpayers Still on the Hook for $133B from Bailouts | Nanavaty …

www.nndcpa.com1/26/12

The federal overseer of the government's bank bailout program says taxpayers are still owed $132.9 billion on investments in 458 bailed-out banks and companies, including failed insurer American International Group (AIG: 25.31, 0.00, 0.00%), General Motors (GM: 25.08, … SIGTARP now warns TARP could be cemented in the government's architecture as a permanent bailout program, even though the public initially “perceived TARP as primarily a bank bailout.” …

Government watchdog Christy Romero says that U.S. taxpayers are still owed $132.9 billion by companies that received bailouts, and adds that much of it will never be recovered.

TARP – Troubled Asset Relief Program

The bailout debt which was launched at the height of the financial crisis in September 2008 will continue for years, says a report issued Thursday January 26, 2012 by Christy Romero, who is the acting special inspector general for the $700 billion bailout.

What’s worse is that some bailout programs, such as the one to help homeowners avoid foreclosure by reducing mortgage payments, will continue into late 2017, and they will cost the government an additional $51 billion, plus or minus a few billion dollars.

The report also notes that the roller coaster stock market slowed the Treasury Department’s efforts to sell off its stakes in 458 bailed-out companies, which include insurers, American International Group Inc., General Motors Co. and Ally Financial Inc.

The Present Share Prices And Needed Share Prices

AIG’s shares closed Wednesday at $25.31, while GM ended at $24.92 and Ally isn’t publicly traded.

They were $28.73 a share for AIG, and $53.98 for GM so it could take a long time for the market to rebound to that level.

The report concludes that it will also be challenging for the government to get out of the 458 companies as the market remains volatile and banks struggle keep afloat in the tough economy.

The Troubled Asset Relief Program, or TARP

Congress authorized $700 billion for the bailout of financial companies and automakers and $413.4 billion was paid out.

So far, the government has recovered about $318 billion.

The Treasury’s Response

Treasury spokesman Matt Anderson said the department,

"has made substantial progress winding down TARP and has already recovered more than 77% of the funds disbursed for the program, through repayments and other income".

"We’ll continue to balance the important goals of exiting our investments as soon as practicable and maximizing value for taxpayers".

To be fair however, it needs be said that the government has recovered its investments in four of the companies that received the most aid:

Bank of America Corp., Citigroup Inc., Chrysler Group LLC and Chrysler Financial, which is the automaker’s old lending arm.

Criminal Activity

In Romero’s quarterly report to Congress, she said her office,

"has uncovered and prevented fraud related to TARP".

Investigations by her office have resulted in criminal charges against ten people and three convictions.

Who Are The World’s Biggest Debtor Nations? Slide-show!

Michael Redbourn — Thu, 22 Dec 2011 16:53:27 +0000

Debt-Free United States Notes Were Once Issued Under JFK And …

theeconomiccollapseblog.com12/19/11

Our current debt-based monetary system was devised by greedy bankers that wanted to make huge profits by creating money out of thin air and lending it to the U.S. government at interest. Sadly, the vast majority of the …

The Corporate Cash Myth | Euro Pacific Capital

www.europac.net12/21/11

The death blow to US corporations could come when US interest rates rise to historically normal levels. A four-percentage-point rise in the interest rates paid on debt by US corporations would cost them nearly $300 billion per …

If you think that the US is in a terrible state financially, you’re right, because the US can’t pay the interest on its debts which is why those debts are getting bigger every second of every day.

But take a look at this slide-show and most likely be amazed.

Of the twenty countries listed, America is number twenty meaning that there are nineteen countries who owe much more of their GDP that it does.

And please note how the socialist countries are doing and perhaps cringe, knowing that this is the direction in which Obama would like to lead America.

Fifty Facts About The US Economy That Might Shock You!

Michael Redbourn — Mon, 19 Dec 2011 14:40:05 +0000

Zakaria: The real burden on the U.S. economy – Global Public …

globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com12/11/11

By Fareed Zakaria, CNN President Obama gave an important speech in Kansas last week. Whether you agree with all of it or not, he has begun a national conversation about the economy and the role of government.

Global Economic Crisis: The U.S. An Insolvent and Ungovernable …

www.marketoracle.co.uk12/18/11

Global Economic Crisis: The U.S. An Insolvent and Ungovernable Country :: The Market Oracle :: Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting Free Website.

Do you now how bad the US economy really is?

If you answered, "Yes" then read on because it’s almost certainly far worse than you thought.

And if you answered, "No" or "Maybe" then sit down before you read on!

The following data along with links appeared on a blog entitled The Economic Collapse and for those unfamiliar with the site, TEC (The Economic Collapse) is a blog that regularly compiles a comprehensive list of the most startling and unsettling facts about the U.S. economy.

Why Does TEC Do It?

A blurb on the site says:

“If we do not educate the American people about how deathly ill the U.S. economy has become, then they will just keep falling for the same old lies that our politicians keep telling them. Just ‘tweaking’ things here and there is not going to fix this economy".

“America is consuming far more wealth than it is producing and our debt is absolutely exploding. If we stay on this current path, an economic collapse is inevitable. Hopefully the crazy economic numbers from 2011 that I have included in this article will be shocking enough to wake some people up"

“If we all work together, hopefully we can get millions of people to wake up and realize that ‘business as usual’ will result in a national economic apocalypse".

So Without More Ado – Here Are The Fifty Figures

1. A staggering 48% of all Americans are either considered to be “low income” or are living in poverty.

2. Approximately 57% of all children in the United States are living in homes that are either considered to be “low income” or impoverished.

3. If the number of Americans that “wanted jobs” was the same today as it was back in 2007, the “official” unemployment rate put out by the U.S. government would be up to 11%.

4. The average amount of time that a worker stays unemployed in the United States is now over 40 weeks.

5. One recent survey found that 77% of all U.S. small businesses do not plan to hire any more workers.

6. There are fewer payroll jobs in the United States today than there were back in 2000 even though we have added 30 million extra people to the population since then.

7. Since December 2007, median household income in the United States has declined by a total of 6.8% once you account for inflation.

8. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 16.6 million Americans were self-employed back in December 2006. Today, that number has shrunk to 14.5 million.

9. A Gallup poll from earlier this year found that approximately one out of every five Americans that do have a job consider themselves to be underemployed.

10. According to author Paul Osterman, about 20% of all U.S. adults are currently working jobs that pay poverty-level wages.

11. Back in 1980, less than 30% of all jobs in the United States were low income jobs. Today, more than 40% of all jobs in the United States are low income jobs.

12. Back in 1969, 95% of all men between the ages of 25 and 54 had a job. In July, only 81.2% of men in that age group had a job.

13. One recent survey found that one out of every three Americans would not be able to make a mortgage or rent payment next month if they suddenly lost their current job.

14. The Federal Reserve recently announced that the total net worth of U.S. households declined by 4.1% in the 3rd quarter of 2011 alone.

15. According to a recent study conducted by the BlackRock Investment Institute, the ratio of household debt to personal income in the United States is now 154%.

16. As the economy has slowed down, so has the number of marriages. According to a Pew Research Center analysis, only 51% of all Americans that are at least 18 years old are currently married. Back in 1960, 72% of all U.S. adults were married.

17. The U.S. Postal Service has lost more than 5 billion dollars over the past year.

18. In Stockton, California home prices have declined 64% from where they were at when the housing market peaked.

19. Nevada has had the highest foreclosure rate in the nation for 59 months in a row.

20. If you can believe it, the median price of a home in Detroit is now just $6000.

21. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, 18% of all homes in the state of Florida are sitting vacant. That figure is 63% larger than it was just ten years ago.

22. New home construction in the United States is on pace to set a brand new all-time record low in 2011.

23. 19% of all American men between the ages of 25 and 34 are now living with their parents.

24. Electricity bills in the United States have risen faster than the overall rate of inflation for five years in a row.

25. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, health care costs accounted for just 9.5% of all personal consumption back in 1980. Today they account for approximately 16.3%.

26. One study found that approximately 41% of all working age Americans either have medical bill problems or are currently paying off medical debt.

27. If you can believe it, one out of every seven Americans has at least 10 credit cards.

28. The United States spends about 4 dollars on goods and services from China for every one dollar that China spends on goods and services from the United States.

29. It is being projected that the U.S. trade deficit for 2011 will be 558.2 billion dollars.

30. The retirement crisis in the United States just continues to get worse. According to the Employee Benefit Research Institute, 46% of all American workers have less than $10,000 saved for retirement, and 29% of all American workers have less than $1,000 saved for retirement.

31. Today, one out of every six elderly Americans lives below the federal poverty line.

32. According to a study that was just released, CEO pay at America’s biggest companies rose by 36.5% in just one recent 12 month period.

33. Today, the “too big to fail” banks are larger than ever. The total assets of the six largest U.S. banks increased by 39% between September 30, 2006 and September 30, 2011.

34. The six heirs of Wal-Mart founder Sam Walton have a net worth that is roughly equal to the bottom 30% of all Americans combined.

35. According to an analysis of Census Bureau data done by the Pew Research Center, the median net worth for households led by someone 65 years of age or older is 47 times greater than the median net worth for households led by someone under the age of 35.

36. If you can believe it, 37% of all U.S. households that are led by someone under the age of 35 have a net worth of zero or less than zero.

37. A higher%age of Americans is living in extreme poverty (6.7%) than has ever been measured before.

38. Child homelessness in the United States is now 33% higher than it was back in 2007.

39. Since 2007, the number of children living in poverty in the state of California has increased by 30%.

40. Sadly, child poverty is absolutely exploding all over America. According to the National Center for Children in Poverty, 36.4% of all children that live in Philadelphia are living in poverty, 40.1% of all children that live in Atlanta are living in poverty, 52.6% of all children that live in Cleveland are living in poverty and 53.6% of all children that live in Detroit are living in poverty.

41. Today, one out of every seven Americans is on food stamps and one out of every four American children is on food stamps.

42. In 1980, government transfer payments accounted for just 11.7% of all income. Today, government transfer payments account for more than 18% of all income.

43. A staggering 48.5% of all Americans live in a household that receives some form of government benefits. Back in 1983, that number was below 30%.

44. Right now, spending by the federal government accounts for about 24% of GDP. Back in 2001, it accounted for just 18%.

45. For fiscal year 2011, the U.S. federal government had a budget deficit of nearly 1.3 trillion dollars. That was the third year in a row that our budget deficit has topped one trillion dollars.

46. If Bill Gates gave every single penny of his fortune to the U.S. government, it would only cover the U.S. budget deficit for about 15 days.

47. Amazingly, the U.S. government has now accumulated a total debt of 15 trillion dollars. When Barack Obama first took office the national debt was just 10.6 trillion dollars.

48. If the federal government began right at this moment to repay the U.S. national debt at a rate of one dollar per second, it would take over 440,000 years to pay off the national debt.

49. The U.S. national debt has been increasing by an average of more than 4 billion dollars per day since the beginning of the Obama administration.

50. During the Obama administration, the U.S. government has accumulated more debt than it did from the time that George Washington took office to the time that Bill Clinton took office.

So Who’s To Blame?

Take A Look At The Federal Reserve

Since its inception, the Federal Reserve has been a perpetual debt machine that has almost single-handedly destroyed the value of the U.S. dollar!

The Solution

From The TEC website:

"One of the most important steps that we could take to bring prosperity back to America would be to nationalize the Federal Reserve. Doing so would allow the federal government to quit borrowing money, dramatically reduce taxes and eventually pay off the entire U.S. national debt.

Instead of inheriting the largest debt in the history of the world, future generations would actually have a chance at economic prosperity because they would not be forced to pay off the horrific debt of previous generations.

There are no good reasons to keep the status quo. Our current debt-based monetary system will inevitably lead to a complete and total economic collapse. We desperately need to make a change while we still can. As you will see below, there are a ton of good reasons why we should nationalize the Federal Reserve.

Right now, most Americans believe that the Federal Reserve is actually an agency of the federal government. But that is simply not the case.

The truth is that the Federal Reserve is about as "federal" as Federal Express is, and the Federal Reserve openly admits as much.

For example, in defending itself against a Bloomberg request for information under the Freedom of Information Act, the Federal Reserve stated in court that it was "not an agency" of the U.S. government and therefore not subject to the Freedom of Information Act".

So Who Owns The Federal Reserve?

According to the Federal Reserve’s own website, it is the member banks that own it.

The twelve regional Federal Reserve Banks, which were established by Congress as the operating arms of the nation’s central banking system, are organized much like private corporations–possibly leading to some confusion about "ownership." For example, the Reserve Banks issue shares of stock to member banks. However, owning Reserve Bank stock is quite different from owning stock in a private company. The Reserve Banks are not operated for profit, and ownership of a certain amount of stock is, by law, a condition of membership in the System. The stock may not be sold, traded, or pledged as security for a loan; dividends are, by law, 6 percent per year.

Will Obama Nationalize The Federal Reserve?

No chance!

So Who Might Do It?

Well Obama’s replacement might, but even that’s not for sure because we don’t know who it will be; or if it will be.

But we do know however that the 2012 election will be one of the most important in US history.

So if you care about the US then make sure you vote, and be sure to vote Republican because with a Republican in the White House there’s a chance of positive change, but with Obama there’s none!

And if you want to know what the interest on Amreica’s debt is doing to our economy then checkout:

Forget The Deficit! How Big Is The Interest On Our Debt?

Will Moody’s & Fitch Downgrade America’s Credit Rating?

Michael Redbourn — Tue, 25 Oct 2011 14:00:36 +0000

U.S. credit rating facing another cut soon, Bank of America warns …

latimesblogs.latimes.com10/23/11

U.S. credit rating could suffer another downgrade before the end of the year, Bank of America Merrill Lynch warns.

US Rating Likely to be Downgraded Again: Merrill — Clearing and …

www.clearingandsettlement.com10/24/11

The United States will likely suffer the loss of its triple-A credit rating from another major rating agency by the end of this year due to concerns over the deficit, Bank of America Merrill Lynch forecasts. The trigger … Moody's Investors Service, which has a negative outlook on the United States's Aaa rating, said it is looking at several other factors, including the results of presidential elections and the expiration of the Bush-era tax cuts late in 2012, to decide on the rating. …

Is the United States in for another credit downgrade by year’s end?

The US spends about 40% more every year than it collects in taxes!

Merrill Lynch just warned via Bank of America that it’s likely that either Moody’s or Fitch, or both, will move to downgrade America’s AAA rating if Congress fails to agree on a long-term plan to tame the nation’s $14.8 trillion deficit!

The Downgrade Is Likely

Merrill’s North American economist, Ethan Harris, wrote in their Friday report:

“The credit rating agencies have strongly suggested that further rating cuts are likely if Congress does not come up with a credible long-run plan to cut the deficit. Hence, we expect at least one credit downgrade in late November or early December when the super committee crashes".

Moody’s

Moody’s Investors Service hasn’t yet said what it will do if there’s no deal, but it’s already placed U.S. credit under review for a possible downgrade.

“It’s not that we’re waiting just for this committee to decide on the rating".

Steven Hess, Moody’s lead analyst for the United States, told Reuters last week.

“Failure to come up with a deal however would be negative information, but it is not decisive in our view about the rating".

The Super Commitee And The Lie!

Instead of agreeing on spending cuts or new taxes, Congress and the president appointed a bipartisan super committee to reach a deal to reduce the U.S. deficit by at least $1.2 trillion by Nov. 23.

It’s widely believed that if there’s no deal, then automatic across-the-board cuts mostly in discretionary spending will occur.

But what’s not well publicised is that:

Congress would be free to stop any or all of those reductions, if it chooses and the president agrees.

Forget The Deficit! Interest On The Debt Is The Problem!

Michael Redbourn — Mon, 05 Sep 2011 10:38:37 +0000

Obama to offer his own deficit reduction package (AP)

WASHINGTON – Drawing a bright line with congressional Republicans, President Barack Obama is proposing $1.5 trillion in new tax revenue as part of his long-term deficit reduction plan, according to… … The administration also identified $430 billion in savings from lower interest payment on the debt. Obama backed away from proposing sweeping changes to Medicare, following the advice of fellow Democrats that it would only give political cover to a privatization …

Publish Date: 09/19/2011 5:46

http://newsretrieval.info/?p=3613

Allan Abramson: The Debt, the Deficit and Jobs: What Obama …

www.huffingtonpost.com11/7/11

Of course we can afford the current debt, and we probably could handle another $10 trillion, but who wants to go deeper in debt when we have so much to do to revive the economy and to put people back to work?

Ready To Be Shocked?!

DID YOU KNOW?

Did you know that the US Federal Government spent $413 billion on INTEREST PAYMENTS just last year?!

Since 1988 the US congress has spent 8 trillion in interest payments alone!

According to the non-partisan CBO (Congressional Budget Office) by the year 2021 interest payments will reach 1.1 trillion dollars a year!

By the year 2046 every single dime of Federal Income Tax revenue will be spent on interest!

If congress stopped ALL spending today and made payments of one hundred million dollars a day, it would take 389 years just to pay off the debt!

When politicians talk about reducing the deficit they are not talking about reducing the DEBT!

What can you do about it.

Get people to watch this video and GET INVOLVED !!!

Because if you don’t, it might well mean the end of the greatest republic the world has ever known!

China Has A Much Lower Credit Rating Than The US

Michael Redbourn — Mon, 08 Aug 2011 18:09:44 +0000

Moody's Review China's Credit Rating, Overseas Investment …

www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk11/8/11

HIGHLIGHTS FROM CHINA About ARC China ARC China is a Shanghai-based investment manager focused on investments in consumption-driven, entrepreneur-owned small and medium sized enterprises in China's Tier II and Tier III …

China cuts bank reserve ratio by 50 bps | Bramesh's Technical …

www.brameshtechanalysis.com11/30/11

In a major rating action review of as many as 37 banks globally, S&P has incidentally upgraded two Chinese banks – Bank of China and China Construction Bank. A credit rating is generally considered as a tool to measure an …

A PDF of The Ratings Of Various Countries By The Credit Agencies Is Available For Download

Government officials in China are berating the U.S. because of the Standard & Poor’s downgrade to AA+ and Guan Jianzhong, chairman of Dagong Global Credit Rating, says the U.S. dollar is,

"Gradually being discarded by the world", adding that the “process will be irreversible".

China’s Credit Rating

Fitch gives China an A+ which is their fourth highest rating.

Moody’s gives China an Aa3 which is there third highest ranking.

S&P lists China’s debt rating as AA-, which is the fourth highest level, due to its “sizable” contingent liabilities in its banking system.

Debt to GDP

China’s debt-to-GDP ratio is not only worse than the United State’s ratio, it’s probably worse than Portugal’s, and Portugal is close to bankruptcy.

Despite Moody’s Investors Service saying last month that China’s local debt was understated by hundreds of billions of dollars, the People’s Daily said S&P’s downgrade of the U.S.’s credit rating,

"Sounded the alarm bell for the dollar-denominated global monetary system".

Some Points To Ponder

China has come to own an estimated $1.16 trillion in U.S. debt, by printing excessive Yuans which holds down the currency’s value, making its exports dirt cheap, and it then it uses that extra printed currency to buy U.S. debt.

China likes to say its debt-to-GDP ratio is 17% but the respected Beijing-based research firm Dragonomics says it’s in fact 89% of GDP, which if true would make it worse than Portugal’s which is 83% of GDP.

Stephen Green, who is China economist at Standard Chartered Bank, reckons China’s total debt, including contingent liabilities, is 77% of GDP.

Moody’s said last month that China’s local government debt is understated and might be 3.5 trillion yuan ($540 billion), bigger than its state auditor has estimated,

China’s central bank alone holds an estimated $1.16 trillion in debt, and the government has already increased credit in the system to a reported 200% of GDP.

The eurozone’s problems have kept the euro on a very questionable footing, with the European Central Bank keeping it strong by raising interest rates.

Japan’s massive debts, which are the largest in the world, have kept the yen on an unsound footing.

Strong U.S. defense of Japan, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates make it in their interests to protect the dollar.

S&P Downgraded US Credit Rating Because Of Huge Deficits

Michael Redbourn — Sat, 06 Aug 2011 11:55:56 +0000

Did S&P Downgrade Your Bank? | The Daily Capitalist

dailycapitalist.com11/30/11

Did S&P Downgrade Your Bank? By Jeff Harding, on November 29th, 2011. S&P issued new ratings for the world's 37 largest banks. Was your bank upgraded or downgraded? As a public service, I have included the entire list. Standard …

S&P: No U.S. Credit Rating Downgrade Despite Supercommittee Fail

www.huffingtonpost.com11/22/11

WASHINGTON — Credit rating agency Standard & Poor's says it will not downgrade the U.S. government's credit rating because a Congressional committee failed to come up with a plan to trim deficits by at least $1.2 trillion …

As you most likely already know, the U.S. had its AAA credit rating downgraded for the first time by S&P, which slammed the nation’s political process and said lawmakers failed to cut spending enough to reduce record deficits.

If you already know the bad news, but don’t know exactly the reasons for the downgrading then maybe watch the vid!

Aug 5, 2011 David Beers, the London-based managing director of sovereign credit ratings at Standard & Poor’s, talks with Bloomberg’s Tom Keene about S&P’s downgrade of the U.S. credit rating.

It’s a pity that David Beers stammers and says so many “ahs”, but it’s perhaps understandable because he’d never been in such a hot-seat before.

Just imagine the heat that he’s getting!

Sen. Marco Rubio’s Debt Ceiling Address

Michael Redbourn — Sun, 31 Jul 2011 17:36:09 +0000

Marco Rubio | Debt | Weak economy, high debt require immediate …

dailycaller.com6/21/11

If we don't act now, our children and grandchildren will never forgive us.

Marco Rubio's Debt-Ridden Plan.

prospect.org7/15/10

Like most Republicans, Florida Senate hopeful Marco Rubio has taken to attacking President Obama on debt and deficits. Rubio hit Obama on the deficit in a June interview with Newsmax, and on the "Cutting Government …

Senator Rubio is certainly impressive, and I can quite easily imagine him being asked to be a running mate by either Perry or Romney if one of them wins the primaries.

The video below has been edited down and hopefully contains the highlights of Sen Rubio’s address to the Senate.

The full text of Sen. Rubio’s speech is available for download.

Who Will Be The Dominant Powers In 2050?

Michael Redbourn — Tue, 01 Mar 2011 13:16:18 +0000

The US Russia-China Geo-political Strategy | Sikh Archives

www.sikharchives.com12/16/11

After going from defeat to defeat on the periphery of world power and not satisfied with running treasury-busting deficits in pursuit of empire building against economically weak countries, Obama has embraced a policy of encirclement … We will then analyze the rationale for military escalation against Russia and China as part of a new offensive moving beyond the Arab world ( Syria , Libya ) and in the face of the declining economic position of the EU and the US in the …

U.S. experts said the People's Liberation Army and courage by …

www.9abc.net12/16/11

China's economic growth rate of 9%, the United States is suffering from paralysis of the economic recession and political problems. U.S. opinion polls continue to show most Americans believe that China is the world's dominant economic power. Pew Research Center found that in 22 countries among the 15 … on an outdated view of national power the formation of delusions. If anyone think that China will overtake the United States, that at least three errors were committed – the one. …

China? India? Or will the West Just Scrape though?

Two Very Different Views

Citigroup and HSBC recently issued two very different analyses about who will rule the world in 2050 with one concluding that the West can just hang onto its lead, whilst the other suggests that it might become just another not-so-relevant voice in global affairs.

Citigroup

Citigroup’s Willem Buiter offers the following projections:

The Muslim powerhouse of Indonesia will match the combined GDP’s of Germany, France, Italy and Britain by mid-century.

The combined economies of China and India (Chindia) will be four times as large as the United States’s, which would restore the historic order of Asian dominance, before Europe’s navies entered the scene in the 16th Century.

Africa will at last emerge from its long string of disappointments to take the baton as the fastest growing region, clocking up a 7.5% increase a year over the next two decades.

Does The Above Seem Feasible?

Yes, because it would not require miracles of any kind for it to occur.

Catch-up countries merely need, law and governance, open markets, and to then let the "convergence theory" do the work for them, in order to keep their reforms on track;

*Convergence theory claims that people in crowds express existing beliefs and values i.e. a mob’s reaction is the rational product of widespread popular feeling.

Take a look at the uprisings in many Arab countries right now!

Sustained growth prospects in per capita incomes across the world have not been as favourable as they are today for a long long time, possibly in human history.

Global growth is expected to quicken.

And GDP should quadruple again from $73 trillion to $378 trillion by 2050 (measured in constant US dollars).

Will Any Western Economy Defy The Odds?

Britain is expected to scrape through, and will just hold on as the world’s 10th biggest economy in 2050 and it will even overtake the US in per capita terms.

How Could That Be?

Britain has now slipped to 25th in reading, 28th in maths, and 16th in science in the Pisa (Programme for International Student Assessment) rankings.

Whereas Shanghai’s school district takes top prize across all three, ahead of Korea and Finland.

So Where’s The UK’s Hidden Strength?

The UK faces a less disastrous aging crisis than much of Europe because of its unrivaled leadership in unwed teenage pregnancies.

HSBC

Th HSBC’s report also sketches an era of unparalleled prosperity:

China overtakes the US, but only just, but then loses momentum.

China and America (Chimerica) and not Chindia, form the G2, and it towers over all others in the global condominium.

Americans prosper with a fertility rate of 2.1, which is high enough to shield them from the sort of demographic collapse that’s closing in on Asia and Europe.

Beijing and Shanghai are 1.0, Korea is 1.1, Singapore 1.2, Germany 1.3, Poland 1.3, Italy 1.4 and Russia 1.4.

Americans remain three times richer than the Chinese in 2050.

The US economy still outstrips India by two-and-a-half times.

So Which Report Is Right?

Both studies rely on the theories of Harvard economist Robert Barro, but they differ on how easy it is to handle population collapse, and the great unknown is the effect of rapid ageing on creativity.

China’s workforce will peak in absolute terms in just four years, and while the population keeps growing until the tipping point in the mid 2020s, it is ageing very fast.

Zhuoyan Mao from Beijing’s Institute for Family Planning said China’s fertility rate had been below replacement level for almost twenty years, “Population momentum turned negative over a decade ago in Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai and Liaoning, but the countryside is catching up and the decline speed in rural areas is faster".

*Hence warnings by Chinese demographers that there may soon be an epidemic of suicides, as the elderly step out on the ice to relieve society’s burden.

China’s one-child policy is obviously no longer needed, (but for some reason which is unknown to us is still in force), since its fertility rate is collapsing anyway for the same reasons that it collapsed in Japan and Korea:

Affluence.

Women’s education.

Later pregnancies that stretch generations.

In-law duties.

Costly housing.

*Shanghai’s local authorities have been encouraging couples to have a second child since 2009.

China is depleting the non-renewable aquifers of its northern plains at an alarming place, and faces a separate water crisis from receding Himalayan glaciers, and eco-damage of 13.5% of GDP each year outstrips China’s growth rate of 10%.

What neither report deals with however is that the US is deemed for bankruptcy in 2020 and might even be bankrupt already!