Our Changing Globe

Archive for the ‘consumer confidence’ Category

A just released report by the Commerce Department shows that retail sales unexpectedly dropped by 0.4% in April, following a revised drop of 1.3% in March and analysts contributed the drop to the biggest loss of household wealth on record, falling home values and rising unemployment.

Most economists had predicted that retail sales would rise by 0.2% after a 1% decrease a month earlier.

Bill Cheney, who is the chief economist at John Hancock Financial Services Inc. said in an interview that, “The second quarter is going to be tough. Consumers are losing their jobs, concerned about losing their jobs and losing wealth”.

Mike Niemira who is the chief economist at ICSC was a little bit less downbeat and said, “We’re still working our way through the slowdown. I think it will get better as the year progresses. The month of May will still be tough and I suspect by the summer that things will be a little broader in terms of the improvement”.

The decline in sales was led by falling demand at furniture, clothing, grocery and electronics’ stores, and even as fuel prices rose, receipts at service stations fell, indicating perhaps that Americans were driving less.

Clothing sales fell by 0.5% and sales at general-merchandise stores fell by 0.1%.

Auto sales unexpectedly gained by 0.2% after dropping by 2% in March, with automobiles selling at a 9.3 million annual pace in April, compared with a 9.9 million rate in March.

Chrysler, whose U.S. whose sales were down by 48% from the same month last year, started offering rebates of up to $6,000 on May 6 and the offers will continue until the end of the month.

The Labor Department reported last week that payrolls fell by 539,000 workers last month making it the smallest drop since October, but it took the unemployment rate to 8.9%, which is the highest level since 1983 and economists expect it to average 9.6% in 2010.

Consumer confidence is important, but what should we believe when one headline tells us that, “The banks have enough cash”, whilst another screams, “Mortgage delinquencies among the most creditworthy homeowners rose by 50% last month”.

After Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said, “the vast majority of the nation’s banks have enough capital”, U.S. stocks advanced the most in almost two weeks, and Walter “Bucky” Hellwig, who helps oversee $30 billion at Morgan Asset said, “Geithner’s comments that most banks are OK got money coming back into stocks because that pretty much allays yesterday’s fears about stress tests and banks having to raise more capital”.

Even General Motors Corp. rose 2.4 percent to $1.70 after a government auditor said the Treasury will supply the automaker with $5 billion in additional aid.

Meanwhile, David Heupel, who helps manage $60 billion at Thrivent Financial for Lutherans said, “There are still signs of a tough economic environment, but companies that have really cut down their expenses are starting to see a little glimmer of life”.

The “tough economic environment” part of his comment would appear to be something of an understatement however, because the number of so-called prime borrowers who are at least sixty days behind on mortgages owned or guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac rose to 743,686 in January, from 497,131 in December, and that’s almost double the October total.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac who are the biggest U.S. mortgage-finance companies, either owning or guaranteeing 56% of all U.S. home loans, just announced that mortgage delinquencies among their “most creditworthy homeowners”, rose by 50% in just one month, and they blamed the fall on both drops in income and too much debt, with 34% of borrowers telling Fannie and Freddie that they were earning less money, and around 20% citing too much debt as their reason for missing their mortgage payments, with a further 8.1% blaming unemployment.