Our Changing Globe

Archive for the ‘consumer’ Category

A just released report by the Commerce Department shows that retail sales unexpectedly dropped by 0.4% in April, following a revised drop of 1.3% in March and analysts contributed the drop to the biggest loss of household wealth on record, falling home values and rising unemployment.

Most economists had predicted that retail sales would rise by 0.2% after a 1% decrease a month earlier.

Bill Cheney, who is the chief economist at John Hancock Financial Services Inc. said in an interview that, “The second quarter is going to be tough. Consumers are losing their jobs, concerned about losing their jobs and losing wealth”.

Mike Niemira who is the chief economist at ICSC was a little bit less downbeat and said, “We’re still working our way through the slowdown. I think it will get better as the year progresses. The month of May will still be tough and I suspect by the summer that things will be a little broader in terms of the improvement”.

The decline in sales was led by falling demand at furniture, clothing, grocery and electronics’ stores, and even as fuel prices rose, receipts at service stations fell, indicating perhaps that Americans were driving less.

Clothing sales fell by 0.5% and sales at general-merchandise stores fell by 0.1%.

Auto sales unexpectedly gained by 0.2% after dropping by 2% in March, with automobiles selling at a 9.3 million annual pace in April, compared with a 9.9 million rate in March.

Chrysler, whose U.S. whose sales were down by 48% from the same month last year, started offering rebates of up to $6,000 on May 6 and the offers will continue until the end of the month.

The Labor Department reported last week that payrolls fell by 539,000 workers last month making it the smallest drop since October, but it took the unemployment rate to 8.9%, which is the highest level since 1983 and economists expect it to average 9.6% in 2010.

Put together, the seven biggest U.S. credit card issuers earned over $27 billion in operating profit in 2007.

Although banks can borrow at interest rates that are nearly as low as Treasury yields, they’ve been cutting credit lines and raising their fees, and the average annual percentage rate offered to new card customers in the U.S. is now 14.2 percent.

Just a few years ago, a booming economy kept loan losses in check and banks perfected marketing tricks and introduced the concept of teaser rates, and in just eight years Americans received around 44 billion pieces of mail jammed into their mail-boxes that promoted credit cards.

Now however, issuers are developing new models to calculate the fees and interest rates that they say are needed to cover the growing number of bad debts.

New rules are being put into place too, and if somebody who’s had a card for a long period suddenly uses it at a grocery store for the first time, then it’s quite likely that he’ll be flagged as a potential credit risk and be added to a watch list.

It’s perhaps understandable that banks need healthy credit card earnings to ensure their survival because they can no longer rely on the securities markets that caused the economy to collapse, but it now appears likely that many of them will lose their long-term customers after the economy stabilizes.

Credit cards have become a mainstay of U.S. banking in recent years because the offer a steady income without the volatility that goes with trading and investment banking, but loans on credit cards are unsecured, and the industry absorbed about $55 billion in credit card defaults last year, which is up from $43 billion in 2007.

Fed rules, which will curb sudden changes in interest rates are set to go into effect on July 1, 2010 – but many Democrats in Congress are now pushing to have the legislation advanced, and they also want greater built-in consumer protection.