Our Changing Globe

Archive for the ‘inflation’ Category

By flooding the financial system with money, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke is seemingly betting that the country’s highest jobless rate in 25 years, combined with the most idle factory capacity on record, will hold down inflation, and it’s textbook Keynesian economics.

If Bernanke’s gamble pays off, then he and the whole Obama administration will be viewed as saviors, but if instead, Milton Friedman’s theories prove correct, and the country lurches from the present financial crisis into rampant inflation, then they will not be so kindly remembered.

Several statements that have recently been made by experts suggest that Bernanke is batting on a very sticky wicket, and many of them have stated on record, their belief that reflation is still in its early stages, and they have pointed out that there are already signs of growing inflation.

John Brynjolfsson, who is the chief investment officer of the hedge fund Armored Wolf, said in a recent TV interview, “We’ve got at least nine innings of reflation ahead of us, ultimately ending with probably double-digit inflation”.

Allan Meltzer who is the Fed historian, and a professor of political economy at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh says, “If history is any guide, then the effort will end in tears and inflation will get higher than it was in the 1970s”.

Consumer prices rose at a year-over-year rate of 13.3% at the end of the ‘70s, mainly because political pressure from Richard Nixon’s White House prevented Chairman Arthur Burns from removing liquidity as quickly as was then necessary.

Former Fed economist John Ryding, who is the founder of RDQ Economics LLC in New York, concurs with Melzer and says that the central bank will be slow to withdraw all the excess cash it has injected into the financial system. “They pay lip service to inflation being a monetary phenomenon, but they’re too much concerned with the Keynesian explanation of inflation”.

The signs that are said to be pointing strongly to inflation are;

• A swelling Fed balance sheet that has climbed $1.2 trillion in the past year to $2.09 trillion.

• M2, which is a broad measure of the money supply that includes checking accounts and money-market mutual funds, rose in the last six months at an annual rate of 14% which is up from 6.3% a during the last decade.

• Copper is now at a five-month high and platinum reached a six-month peak on April 9th and there are those that expect oil prices to double from the present price of $52 a barrel now.

Moreover, Ken Mayland, who is the president of ClearView Economics LLC says he sees, “oil prices increasing to “$80, $90, $100 before the end of next year. All that money is going to find a home”.

A survey that was conducted between March 2th and March 9th by Bloomberg News suggests that unemployment in the U.S. will reach 9.4% in 2009, and the figure far exceeds the one of 8.8% which was projected in a similar survey carried out just a month ago.

The findings of the survey also deviate strongly from the forecast that was presented by the Obama administration when it submitted its budget proposal last month. The White House forecast projected a 7.9% unemployment rate next year, and a higher unemployment rate might mean that the $787 billion that it requested will not be enough.

The U.S. economy has already lost 4.4 million jobs since the recession began in December 2007, and employers recently cut 651,000 workers from payrolls, making the unemployment rate in February the highest since 1983.

Michael Feroli, who is an economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co., in New York said, “Even if things become less apocalyptic it doesn’t mean the unemployment rate will come down. It’ll be a long term restraint on growth. Even when the economy gets back to normal, what’s normal is going to be defined down”.

Federal Reserve policy makers predicted in January that the U.S. economy, which is the world’s largest would shrink by 2.5% this year, which would be the biggest loss since 1946, and then expand by 1.8% the following year and both figures were less than last month’s estimates.

David Rosenberg, who recently predicted that the jobless rate would reach 10% by the end of the year, is the chief North American economist at Banc of America Securities – Merrill Lynch, in New York, said, “As unemployment rises, more Americans won’t be able to make mortgage or car payments, choking off growth and leading to even higher joblessness. We are really in a vicious cycle and this problem requires a massive positive shock to aggregate demand. The fiscal package as it is constructed falls short on that score and the stimulus has to be a lot bolder that what we have seen right now”.

Rosenberg then went on to suggest that the federal government give a $1 trillion interest free loan to state and local governments, which account for around 13% of the economy and employ about 20 million people, “This comes down to the heart and soul, the fabric, of the national economy; cops, teachers, school custodians, firefighters, highway construction workers”.

Kay Krill who is President of the Ann Taylor Stores Corp., said,
“The financial crisis and rising unemployment especially hurt our company as did extremely weak macroeconomic fundamentals, including historically low consumer confidence and a broad-based decline in consumer spending”.

Robert Carnell, who is Chief International Economist at, ING Wholesale Banking in London, also believes the jobless rate will continue to rise into 2011 and said, “The efforts may still fall short, resulting in a very anemic recovery that will deliver very few jobs. The unemployment rate will tick up slowly but surely and people coming into the labor force looking for a job will find it very difficult”.

Major U.S. companies that will be adding to the rise in unemployment include,

Dow Chemical Co. that recently announced that it will lay off 3,500 workers following its merger with Rohm & Haas Co.

General Motors Corp. says it will cut a further 47,000 jobs globally.

FedEx Corp. which is the second-largest U.S. package-delivery firm says that it will be cutting another 900 jobs in addition to the 1,100 that it made last year.