Archive for the ‘home construction’ Category
May 24th, 2009 | 
Author: I couldn’t help but wonder if journalists were clutching at straws when I read stories today that said things similar to, “Orders for durable goods and home sales probably rose in April as the worst U.S. recession in at least half a century started to loosen its grip”.
What do they mean “probably rose”?
Surely, they did or they didn’t.
Sifting through the reports the good news was;
Orders for goods meant to last several years increased 0.4% making it the second gain in three months.
Combined sales of new and existing homes probably advanced to a 5.02 million annual rate from a 4.93 million pace in March, but again the reports say “probably”.
If true, and not “probable” then the above is good new but a stabilization in housing and manufacturing would help the present economic slump since they are the two areas suffering the biggest contractions. It won’t be possible to maintain these gains however unless banks loosen their purse strings, if unemployment continues to rise.
Surveys suggest that the sales of existing houses, which account for more than 90% of the market, rose 2% in April to a 4.66 million annual rate from a 4.57 million rate and Commerce Department figures are expected to show that new-home sales increased 1.1% to a 360,000 annual rate.
David Resler, who is the chief economist at Nomura Securities International Inc. in New York added to the “probables” and “expecteds” by saying “Evidence that the 16-month recession is coming to an end continues to build. Home sales and building activity seem to be stabilizing and manufacturing surveys point to smaller production cuts and smaller job losses”.
A spokesperson for Toll Brothers Inc., the largest U.S. builder of luxury homes, said last week, “That signs were beginning to emerge that the worst was over”, and “We believe the U.S. government’s forceful intervention in the capital markets has begun to restore some confidence that the financial system is on the road to stabilization”.
So the pundits are now telling us that the recovery is, “probable”, “expected” and “suggested”, and I hope that what they see is their glass balls is correct and that it will all happen soon, but I’d have liked to have seen more definitives.
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The “Jack Welch” Portfolio Algorithm « CSS Analytics
Jack Welch is one of the most recognizable names in business as the former CEO of General Electric. His skills and leadership in running one of the largest companies in the world have been the source of numerous books …
Jack Welch Led Gossip Sessions « Leadership Freak
Jack Welch Led Gossip Sessions. With typical candor and color, Jack Welch said, “We always had one hell-of-ah gossip session after every meeting.” (ELP, 2011, NYC). At least two things happened at meetings Jack Welch …
Jack Welch, the former chief executive officer of General Electric Co., and author of “Straight from the Gut”, has been very busy on the talk shows and speaking circuit lately, and here’s what he’s been saying.
“The government has taken advantage of the economic crisis to get a tighter grip on the US economy, and this does not bode well for business”.
“There are so many things that bother me right now. Over the last couple of weeks, things have really gone south in the government relationships”.
“These guys, when they came in, said a crisis like this is impossible to waste. The government seems to think there’s a crisis and now we can get in here and do all the things that we dreamed about when we were at Harvard, when we were somewhere else”.
“The government now controls about 37% of the US economy, including health care, and this makes businesses uneasy, despite promises that the state’s role will shrink when the economy gets better. Now, these guys say they want to get out. Do you believe that? Do they want to get out?”.
“The Troubled Assets Relief Program (TARP) funds, with the conditions attached to them, are also something to be avoided by businesses. And the news that six insurers secured a green light from the Treasury Department to receive funds under the TARP is not good news”. Referring to Obama, Welch said, “I don’t particularly like where he’s taking us. To get the money he needs, he has to have a fake budget. He’s fooling people about how we’re going to have the top line support the programs in the middle without enormous taxes”. Asked about the restructuring of Chrysler, he replied, “I didn’t like the terms. The creditors’ rights were trashed and the unions got 55% of the company”. He did have a couple of good things to say though, “The president’s plan to implement the nation’s first national standard for greenhouse-gas emissions was sound. This emissions plan is not one that gives me great trouble’. And on the direction of the economy, “I want new housing starts to go down, down, down. It’s the only way to get housing prices stabilized, and we need to stabilize housing prices. While the market didn’t like it, housing starts going down again I like it”.
