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Archive for the ‘oil’ Category

Europe a dagger pointed at Obama's reelection « The Enterprise Blog

blog.american.com11/16/11

While Europe's problems aren't Obama's fault, voters would hold him accountable for an economy too weak to withstand overseas shocks. Perhaps, they … 24 Responses to “Europe a dagger pointed at Obama's reelection” …

Virginia – A Microcasm of Obama's Re-election Problems

michael-in-norfolk.blogspot.com10/21/11

Virginia – A Microcasm of Obama's Re-election Problems. The GOP presidential candidate line up continues to be a circus where the only sane candidates – Romney and Huntsman in my view – do not score well with the …

If Obama’s to get reelected, then he’ll need to overcome five major issues, and if he doesn’t, then he’ll lose, almost regardless of who is GOP opponent is!

His first and major problem is:

Jobs!

The single most important statistic affecting Obama’s reelection chances is the unemployment rate.

In April it stood at 9% which is up from 8.8% in March and that’s well above the historical norm for modern presidents who were reelected.

In March, a Wall Street Journal survey of economists predicted unemployment would be down to 7.7% by Election Day, but even that’s only just one-tenth of a percent lower than it was in November 1976, when President Ford lost to Jimmy Carter.

And, according to a Los Angeles Times analysis, that’s still higher than on two additional occasions when an incumbent president went down to defeat, in part because of high unemployment.

In 1980, President Carter lost to Ronald Reagan when unemployment was at 7.5%, and in 1992, a 7.4% unemployment rate helped Bill Clinton defeat George H. W. Bush.

In the post-World War II era, unemployment has only topped 7% four times on Election Day, and the incumbent has won only once and that was: President Reagan in 1984, when unemployment was at 7.2%.

The second problem is:

Obamacare!

A Rasmussen report issued on May 9 2011 found that support for repeal of the national health care law had rebounded after falling below 50% for the first time since it was passed by Congress in March of last year, and it now indicates that 57% of likely U.S. voters now favor at least a partial repeal of the law.

Just 36% oppose repeal, and those new findings include 44% who strongly favor repeal of the measure as against 26% who are strongly opposed.

If Romney is not the nominee, then the individual mandate is going to be an even bigger liability for Obama, and especially as the issue of its constitutionality works its way through the courts.

And in a bad piece of timing for the president, the case, or cases could reach the Supreme Court right in the thick of the 2012 campaign.

If the high court strikes down the individual mandate, or even the whole law, before the election, then that would be a huge embarrassment for Obama.

The third problem is:

Gas Prices

And I really wasn’t sure if I should make high gas prices the #1 issue because Americans hate them!

The fall in global oil prices at the end of the first week of May might well signal relief for consumers at the pump, but the spike in US gas prices to $4 a gallon, after a steady escalation in the cost of crude oil, remains a source of concern for the White House, both in its impact on consumers and the overall economy, as well as on Obama’s political fortunes.

Obama did say that, “that there’s no silver bullet to bring prices down”, and he did take very minimal action.

On April 21, he announced, “a Justice Department task force to monitor oil and gas markets for evidence of fraud or manipulation”, but it should perhaps be remembered that Obama has said that, “Gas prices at $4 would be OK”.

And the higher the gas price, the easier it will be for Obama to push his clean engergy agenda, but he’ll likely run out of time on that one.

The fourth problem is:

The Budget Deficit And National Debt

Obama ranks way down there when it comes to his handling of soaring deficits, and a dangerously high federal debt.

First, he kicked the can down the road by setting up a bipartisan fiscal commission, and after the commission came out with its recommendations, he ignored them!

And his proposed fiscal year 2012 budget, which was released in February, was widely panned for failing to address medical entitlements which are the biggest drivers of the looming crisis.

Then when Rep. Paul Ryan (R) of Wisconsin, chairman of the House Budget Committee, put out a budget plan with dramatic cuts, Obama simply responded with a “framework” for deficit reduction that was notably vague on how it would achieve promised major savings in Medicare and Medicaid.

And the latest Gallup poll shows 61% disapproval and only 33% approval!

Finally And Fifthly

Home Foreclosures

The Obama administration’s efforts to alleviate the home mortgage crisis have fallen way short of expectations.

In data released May 6, the departments of Housing and Urban Development and the Treasury reported that only 670,000 homeowners have been granted permanent mortgage modifications since the inception of the Home Affordable Modification Program in 2009, and of those, 83,000 subsequently have been disqualified.

The plans goal was to help 3 to 4 million homeowners.

Persistent high unemployment continues to put homeowners at risk of foreclosure and home values continue to decline.

Nationally, home prices are down 20% from their 2007 peak, and they’re only expected to hit rock bottom in 2012.

And according to the real estate data firm Zillow Inc., “In the first quarter of 2011, house prices fell 3% compared with the previous quarter, and more than 28% of single-family home owners owe more than their house is worth”.

All of the above is very bad news for Obama, in spite of what you see and hear in the left wing dominated media, and the question begs to be asked, “Can he overcome the five problems?”.

And the honest answer is, “Probably not”.

If he’s lucky he may overcome one or two of the problems, but that most likely won’t be enough.

Weasel Zippers » Blog Archive » Iran: Ahmadinejad Wants …

weaselzippers.us12/27/11

Now, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is stepping into the dispute. He wants to settle it by promoting government-approved apparel for women, garments intended to introduce an array of clothes that are “Islamic and …

The Latest from Iran (29 December): Ahmadinejad … – EA WorldView

www.enduringamerica.com12/29/11

0730 GMT: The registration period for candidates for March's Parliamentary election does not end until Sunday, but President Ahmadinejad is already on the campaign trial. Yesterday in Ilam in western Iran, he addressed a …

Shocked

Iran was apparently shocked by the imposition of the latest round of sanctions, and particularly those that were imposed by the Europeans.

The Soft Underbelly Has Been Targeted

Iran could most likely deal with almost every kind of sanction except the one the one that has just been imposed on it, and that is it’s need for refined fuel and outside investment to finance the rebuilding of its crumbling oil wells.

No More Playing Games

At the end of June, the U.S. Congress and Senate approved by a large majority a law banning global companies there are engaged in ties with Iran’s oil and gas industry from operating in the U.S. The law is a very comprehensive and very strict law, which alone and without EU sanctions would hopefully cause Iranians to rise up and oust their almost universally hated regime. Iran is a huge producer of crude, but perhaps surprisingly, it has to export much of its crude to be refined because it doesn’t have anywhere near sufficient refining capabilities for the crude that it uses and exports.
It’s been spending it’s huge profits from oil on exporting terror and not on its refineries or oil field maintenance.

The Sanctions Are Already Being Felt

Some major energy giants that sell fuel for Iranian cars and planes have already announced that they’ll be terminating their ties with the rogue, crumbling state and the French company Total has already put an end to its Iran business.

But It Gets Much Worse For Iran

The European Union also imposed sanctions in June and the decision was taken by all EU heads of state, and as of early July new investments by European companies and states in Iran’s energy, oil, and gas industry will be banned.
This is an absolute, comprehensive, and far-reaching boycott and technical assistance and the transfer of goods and services to Iran’s oil and gas industry will also be disallowed.

Anger And Fear In Iran

The EU is Iran’s number one economic partner and around 80% of Iran’s revenues come from oil and gas. Iran’s wells are growing old and although there’s and ongoing need to renovate them, there is no money to do so unless it comes as a foreign investment, which is now banned. “The US and EU will be gravely punished” Tehran says, and it’s now calling the Germans “Israel’s slaves”.
Iran is now saying that the Russians and the Chinese abandoned them, which isn’t true, but they didn’t support them either.

The End Of The Regime?

The Iranian regime bases its legitimacy on two fundamental pillars.

1) Spiritual leadership.

2) The will of the people.

The Iranian masses no longer believe that the regime is giving spiritual leadership and they and the young both feel that they were cheated in the elections.
The Iranian people are easily capable of overthrowing the regime and they were the ones that brought the regime to power.

Now Is The Time To Stand Firm

The U.S. and the EU must now stand firm and not be tricked by slick offers from Iran.
Actions and not empty words are what the world now needs to see from Iran!
Far better for the Iranians to topple the regime than for the U.S. or Israel to have to bomb it.