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Obama 2008 Gains Key To 2012 Presidential Battleground

www.huffingtonpost.com4/14/12

New Hampshire (4) – Romney's backyard and vacation home. He won the 2012 primary big, but Obama peeled off this Bush state in 2008 and has worked hard to keep it. Vice President Joe Biden visited Friday. But the GOP …

Obama 2008 Gains Key To 2012 Presidential Battleground

www.huffingtonpost.com4/14/12

New Hampshire (4) – Romney's backyard and vacation home. He won the 2012 primary big, but Obama peeled off this Bush state in 2008 and has worked hard to keep it. Vice President Joe Biden visited Friday. But the GOP …

Rick Santorum’s quitting the Republican nomination race, means that it’s now down to whether Obama Or Romney will be in the White House in 2013.

2012 Will Be About Obama And Not Mitt Romney

During the GOP race, many questions were raised about Romney’s perceived weaknesses, and whether he could win over the hearts and votes of conservatives, women, and his being a Mormon.

But President Barack Obama will now move to center stage, and his first term will now become the defining figure of the general election campaign.

The 2012 election will be more and more about Obama and his perceived successes and failures during his first term.

Obama’s Job Approval Rating

The most important indicator of the president’s prospects will be his job-approval rating because that rating will be very close to his share of the vote on Election Day.

An Example

In 2004, President George W. Bush had a 51% job approval rating and he won 51% of the vote, so Obama’s ratings suggest we are heading for a potentially very close race.

For the past thirty two months, the full month approval ratings for the president have been remarkably stable, and held to to a very narrow range of 44% to 49%.

Which would seem to suggest that people have formed an opinion of the president, and that very little might change their minds.

But, it needs be said that those who oppose Obama tend to feel more strongly about it than those who support him.

For most of the past three years, the president’s ratings have stayed in an even narrower band of 46% to 48% and those numbers suggest Obama would earn just under 50% of the vote on Election Day.

So Approval Ratings Are Likely To Decide 2012

If the president can win over a few more voters and move those numbers up a bit in the coming months, he is very likely to keep his job.

But if the his ratings falter, then Romney is likely to be moving into the White House next January.

The Economy Dominates The Agenda

Right now, economic worries dominate the voters’ agenda, and here the numbers for the president are troubling!

Some 49% of voters trust Romney more than Obama when it comes to the economy!

And just 39% trust Obama more!

A huge gap, given that the economy is in serious trouble.

And Middle Class Voters Trust Romney More

Middle-income voters are especially likely to have more confidence in Romney.

Whereas Obama does best among those who earn less than $20,000 a year and those who earn more than $100,000 annually.

And especially troubling for the White House is the fact that,

20% of Democrats trust Romney more than Obama on the economy!

On other issues, however, Romney and Obama are essentially even and this includes health care, taxes, national security and energy.

The Present Economy Favors Romney In 2012

In a year when economic concerns trump all other issues, the present economic numbers suggest a victory for Romney.

But if the economy improves, then, confidence in the president’s economic policies, and his job approval ratings, are sure to improve as well, and he’ll be much tougher for Romney to beat.

US hiring slows amid uncertainty about economy | economy, march …

www.themonitor.com4/6/12

US hiring slows amid uncertainty about economy | economy, march, job, growth, hiring, work, jobs, unemployment, months, january.

March unemployment 8.2%, economy added 121000 jobs « Hot Air

hotair.com4/6/12

The Bureau of Labor Statistics said that seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate dropped to 8.2% from 8.3% last month, and the broader U-6 unemployment/underemployment rate dropped to 14.5% from 14.9%, while the …

The U.S. economy grew in March, but at a slower rate than in the previous three months.

Employers made fewer hires, which is a sure sign that if a recovery is in fact taking place, that’s it’s uneven, and sluggish at best.

The Labor Department reported Friday (April 7, 2012) that the US economy added 120,000 jobs last month, compared to more than 200,000 in each of the previous three months.

The unemployment rate dropped to 8.2%, the lowest since January 2009, but the decrease was attributed to fewer people searching for jobs.

And Obama now holds the record for the longest period of time, under any President, that unemployment has remained above 8% at any time since the Great Depression.

Obama’s response to the report was:

“We welcome today’s news. but there will still be ups and downs along the way",

Bu Romney, the front-runner in the GOP race, called the jobs data:

“Weak and very troubling. More and more people are growing so discouraged that they are dropping out of the labor force altogether. The president’s excuses have run out".

And House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, said,

"The report shows small businesses and families are still struggling because of President Obama’s failed economic policies".

The Markets?

Stock markets and bond markets were closed on Good Friday (April 6, 2012), so most investors won’t get to render a verdict on the report until Monday.

The Good, The Bad And The Ugly

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke cautioned that:

"The current hiring pace is unlikely to continue without more consumer spending".

Retailers shed nearly 34,000 jobs in March, and temporary help firms dropped almost 8,000 jobs, which is a potentially bad sign for the job market because companies often hire temp workers before adding full timers.

Manufacturers continued to add jobs, hiring 37,000 workers in March.

A broader measure of the labor market, one that adds to the officially unemployed those who have given up looking for work and those forced to settle for part-time jobs, improved last month to 14.5% from 14.9% in February.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics said the economy added 4,000 more jobs in January and February than it previously reported.

For many, what matters most is the unemployment rate. It was 7.8% when Obama entered office in January 2009 and peaked at 10% nine months later. Since August, it has dropped from 9.1% to March’s 8.2%.

No incumbent since World War II has faced voters with unemployment higher than 7.8%.

The 2012 Elections

This year’s election is expected to hinge on the state of the economy, so Obama’s re-election hopes will most likely depend on continued improvement in the unemployment rate and job creation.

And former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who will most likely be the Republican challenger, this week blamed the president’s policies for slow growth and high unemployment.

The Obama campaign has said however, that Romney would reinstate policies that led to the recession, things such as, lower taxes for the wealthy and less regulation for business.

Expected Amnnual Growth?

Most economists expect annual growth this year of just 2.5% and it normally takes an annual growth of 4% to lower the unemployment rate 1 percentage point over a year.

So Why Does the Job Market Seem To Be Improving?

The job market appears to be improving, simply because the pace of layoffs has fallen sharply.

For example, the staffing firm Challenger Gray & Christmas reported Thursday that its planned layoffs fell 27% from February to March 2012.

Meanwhile however,

hiring is still running nearly 20% below pre-recession levels!

Will rising gass prices hurt Obama’s impact on his chances?

I think so, but Sullivan on CNBC doesn’t agree.

* Consumer News and Business Channel