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US hiring slows amid uncertainty about economy | economy, march …

www.themonitor.com4/6/12

US hiring slows amid uncertainty about economy | economy, march, job, growth, hiring, work, jobs, unemployment, months, january.

March unemployment 8.2%, economy added 121000 jobs « Hot Air

hotair.com4/6/12

The Bureau of Labor Statistics said that seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate dropped to 8.2% from 8.3% last month, and the broader U-6 unemployment/underemployment rate dropped to 14.5% from 14.9%, while the …

The U.S. economy grew in March, but at a slower rate than in the previous three months.

Employers made fewer hires, which is a sure sign that if a recovery is in fact taking place, that’s it’s uneven, and sluggish at best.

The Labor Department reported Friday (April 7, 2012) that the US economy added 120,000 jobs last month, compared to more than 200,000 in each of the previous three months.

The unemployment rate dropped to 8.2%, the lowest since January 2009, but the decrease was attributed to fewer people searching for jobs.

And Obama now holds the record for the longest period of time, under any President, that unemployment has remained above 8% at any time since the Great Depression.

Obama’s response to the report was:

“We welcome today’s news. but there will still be ups and downs along the way",

Bu Romney, the front-runner in the GOP race, called the jobs data:

“Weak and very troubling. More and more people are growing so discouraged that they are dropping out of the labor force altogether. The president’s excuses have run out".

And House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, said,

"The report shows small businesses and families are still struggling because of President Obama’s failed economic policies".

The Markets?

Stock markets and bond markets were closed on Good Friday (April 6, 2012), so most investors won’t get to render a verdict on the report until Monday.

The Good, The Bad And The Ugly

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke cautioned that:

"The current hiring pace is unlikely to continue without more consumer spending".

Retailers shed nearly 34,000 jobs in March, and temporary help firms dropped almost 8,000 jobs, which is a potentially bad sign for the job market because companies often hire temp workers before adding full timers.

Manufacturers continued to add jobs, hiring 37,000 workers in March.

A broader measure of the labor market, one that adds to the officially unemployed those who have given up looking for work and those forced to settle for part-time jobs, improved last month to 14.5% from 14.9% in February.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics said the economy added 4,000 more jobs in January and February than it previously reported.

For many, what matters most is the unemployment rate. It was 7.8% when Obama entered office in January 2009 and peaked at 10% nine months later. Since August, it has dropped from 9.1% to March’s 8.2%.

No incumbent since World War II has faced voters with unemployment higher than 7.8%.

The 2012 Elections

This year’s election is expected to hinge on the state of the economy, so Obama’s re-election hopes will most likely depend on continued improvement in the unemployment rate and job creation.

And former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who will most likely be the Republican challenger, this week blamed the president’s policies for slow growth and high unemployment.

The Obama campaign has said however, that Romney would reinstate policies that led to the recession, things such as, lower taxes for the wealthy and less regulation for business.

Expected Amnnual Growth?

Most economists expect annual growth this year of just 2.5% and it normally takes an annual growth of 4% to lower the unemployment rate 1 percentage point over a year.

So Why Does the Job Market Seem To Be Improving?

The job market appears to be improving, simply because the pace of layoffs has fallen sharply.

For example, the staffing firm Challenger Gray & Christmas reported Thursday that its planned layoffs fell 27% from February to March 2012.

Meanwhile however,

hiring is still running nearly 20% below pre-recession levels!

Will rising gass prices hurt Obama’s impact on his chances?

I think so, but Sullivan on CNBC doesn’t agree.

* Consumer News and Business Channel

NoisyRoom.net » Blog Archive » Is The Economy Improving?

noisyroom.net3/6/12

The President and his media are telling us that the economy is improving and their propaganda machine is in overdrive. Here is an AP survey that's hot off the presses, “More Optimism about US Jobs and Economy.” …

Is your personal economy improving? – Cafferty File – CNN.com Blogs

caffertyfile.blogs.cnn.com3/5/12

FROM CNN's Jack Cafferty: Four in 10 Americans say the U.S. economy is growing. That's up from 27% last April and just 3% in 2008. The flip side of the new USA Today/Gallup Poll is that 46% say the economy is in a …

The entire Obama administration’s claim that the economy is improving is based on phony numbers and rigged statistics.

And nothing is more misleading than the recent claims that the economy added over 200,000 jobs during each of the past three months and that unemployment is stable at 8.3%.

Dr. John Hussman of the Hussman Fund says that the claims of job gains are based entirely on weighted figures.

"Total non-farm employment in the U.S., before seasonal adjustments, fell by 2,689,000 jobs in January and then the spin doctors at the Bureau of Labor Statistics went to work".

"Because it’s typical for the economy to lose a large number of jobs after the holidays, largely in retail trade, construction and manufacturing, the BLS estimated that the ‘normal’ seasonal decline in employment should have been 2,932,000 jobs in January".

"The difference between the two numbers was 243,000 jobs, which was reported as an increase in employment".

Hussman notes that the "adjustment" in 2011 and 2012 was more exaggerated than in any year since the 1960s and says that had the standard adjustment been used, instead of the modified figure that the BLS applied, then the total number of new jobs created would only have been about 60,000 for January.

"We’ve had a remarkably mild winter in the U.S., particularly in January, and it’s clear that this has favorably affected both construction and retail activity. Ironically, however, nothing in the seasonal adjustment actually adjusts for this purely seasonal effect".

The Fantasy

The stable-unemployment-rate fantasy is also based on a steady decline in the number of people in the labor force, despite population increases.

The current number of people in the labor force, which is the denominator used in determining the unemployment rate, is the lowest since 1981.

Economist Peter Morici writes that,

"If the adult participation rate in the labor force was the same today as when Obama became president, unemployment would be 11%."

Morici also notes that,

"Adding adults, who say they would re-enter the labor market if conditions improved and part-time workers who would prefer full-time positions, the unemployment rate becomes 15.2%".

"And factoring in college graduates in low skill positions, like counter-work at Starbucks, unemployment is closer to 20%".

Gallop And Rasmussen

Gallup, which predicts election results with incredible accuracy, uses the same survey methodology to develop its own unemployment rate and now reports that it stands at 9.1%, a 0.6 percentage-point increase since last month.

Fortunately, the American people are using their own eyes, and not Obama’s statistics, to figure out what is really going on.

Obama’s approval ratings, as measured most accurately by Gallup and Rasmussen, show a drop from 51% a month or two ago to the low 40s now.

And Rasmussen shows Romney beating Obama by 4 to 6 points.

What Are Obama’s Chances Of Reelection?

At 42% of the vote in the trial heat, the president is facing a crushing defeat, because the vast bulk of the undecided vote always goes against the incumbent.

With gas prices surging, the economic data will only get worse.

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) report on the economy predicts slow growth and higher unemployment in the near future, and Hussman says that,

"Overall, an economic downturn remains the most likely prospect".