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April 28th, 2012 | 
Author: York: Obama faces defeat on Keystone pipeline | Campaign 2012 …
campaign2012.washingtonexaminer.com4/20/12
While much of the political world obsesses over Twitter fights and Seamus the dog, Barack Obama has set himself up for a high-profile defeat on one of the most important issues of the campaign. The president has put his feet in cement in …
Oil and gas news summary: Gulf Keystone Petroleum, Sefton …
www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk5/5/12
This week, Gulf Keystone Petroleum (LON:GKP) released another update from its closely followed exploration campaign in the Kurdistan region of northern Iraq.
It seems likely that Barack Obama has set himself up for a high-profile defeat on one of the most important issues of the campaign.
And he didn’t help his cause when he staged an odd photo-op last month, delivering a speech in Cushing, Oklahoma in front of huge stockpiles of pipes.
Obama sang the praises of pipelines:
"It is critical that we make pipeline infrastructure a top priority",
and made a big deal of his approval of a section of domestic pipeline that didn’t need his approval.
He remained unyielding on Keystone however which seems strange since more and more Democrats are joining Republicans to force approval of the pipeline, whether he wants it or not.
The House
The latest action happened on Wednesday, April 18, when the House passed a measure to move the pipeline forward.
Before the vote, Obama somewhat dramatically issued a veto threat but the House approved the pipeline anyway.
By a veto-proof majority, 293 to 127 and sixty-nine Democrats abandoned the president to vote with Republicans.
When the House voted on the pipeline in July of last year, 47 Democrats broke with the president.
It’s an election year now and the number is up to 69, so look for Republicans to hold more pipeline votes before November, since GOP leaders expect even more Democrats to join them.
The Senate
In the Senate, Democrats are using the filibuster to stop the pipeline, meaning that 60 votes are required to pass it.
In a vote last month, 11 Senate Democrats voted in favor of the pipeline, and if you add those 11 to the Republicans’ 47 votes, then the pro-pipeline forces are just a couple of votes away from breaking Harry Reid’s filibuster.
"We’re right around the corner from actually passing it",
"Two-hundred-ninety-three votes in the House is a gigantic number. People want this thing".
Says a well-informed Senate source.
The Transportation Bill
The pipeline measure is attached to a larger transportation bill, that the Senate already passed, and the the Keystone provision was added later.
So it’s not clear whether the pipeline attachment will end up in the final bill.
It is certain though, that whatever happens, that Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell will force another vote on Keystone sometime.
To Veto Or Not To Veto?
If the pipeline does win those last couple of Senate Democrats, then Obama will be faced with a bill that passed with a veto-proof majority in the House, and over a Democratic filibuster in the Senate.
The president would then be forced either to make good on his veto threat, or to sign a bill moving the pipeline forward, neither of which would leave him looking good.
If he signed the bill, then he’d surely try to save face by claiming that his concerns about the pipeline’s routing and approval process had been met.
But there’s no way it would be seen as anything less than a major defeat!
And if he vetoed the pipeline, then he’d face an embarrassing rebuff in the House.
Back To The Senate
In the Senate, it would take 67 votes to overturn the veto, and that’s probably an insurmountable obstacle for pipeline supporters and all the president would need is 34 Democratic dead-enders to stick with him to stop the pipeline.
But Obama could prevail only at grave political cost.
The rise in gas prices is a potent issue for Mitt Romney and Republicans, and it could become far more potent if prices increase in the summer.
The president would be left standing alone, not just against Republicans, but against a major coalition within his own party, including the large labor unions.
Definitely not a good place to be in, with an election just around the corner.
The Pipeline Will Most Likely Be Built
The odds are overwhelming that the Keystone pipeline will soon become a reality, and Obama will naively have hurt his reelection chances by trying to stop it.
Posted in 2012, administration, economy, Oil, politics, pollution, presidential elections, republicans, Senate, Unemployed, Unemployment, unemployment rate, work | 
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Obama 2008 Gains Key To 2012 Presidential Battleground
www.huffingtonpost.com4/14/12
New Hampshire (4) – Romney's backyard and vacation home. He won the 2012 primary big, but Obama peeled off this Bush state in 2008 and has worked hard to keep it. Vice President Joe Biden visited Friday. But the GOP …
Obama 2008 Gains Key To 2012 Presidential Battleground
www.huffingtonpost.com4/14/12
New Hampshire (4) – Romney's backyard and vacation home. He won the 2012 primary big, but Obama peeled off this Bush state in 2008 and has worked hard to keep it. Vice President Joe Biden visited Friday. But the GOP …
Rick Santorum’s quitting the Republican nomination race, means that it’s now down to whether Obama Or Romney will be in the White House in 2013.
2012 Will Be About Obama And Not Mitt Romney
During the GOP race, many questions were raised about Romney’s perceived weaknesses, and whether he could win over the hearts and votes of conservatives, women, and his being a Mormon.
But President Barack Obama will now move to center stage, and his first term will now become the defining figure of the general election campaign.
The 2012 election will be more and more about Obama and his perceived successes and failures during his first term.
Obama’s Job Approval Rating
The most important indicator of the president’s prospects will be his job-approval rating because that rating will be very close to his share of the vote on Election Day.
An Example
In 2004, President George W. Bush had a 51% job approval rating and he won 51% of the vote, so Obama’s ratings suggest we are heading for a potentially very close race.
For the past thirty two months, the full month approval ratings for the president have been remarkably stable, and held to to a very narrow range of 44% to 49%.
Which would seem to suggest that people have formed an opinion of the president, and that very little might change their minds.
But, it needs be said that those who oppose Obama tend to feel more strongly about it than those who support him.
For most of the past three years, the president’s ratings have stayed in an even narrower band of 46% to 48% and those numbers suggest Obama would earn just under 50% of the vote on Election Day.
So Approval Ratings Are Likely To Decide 2012
If the president can win over a few more voters and move those numbers up a bit in the coming months, he is very likely to keep his job.
But if the his ratings falter, then Romney is likely to be moving into the White House next January.
The Economy Dominates The Agenda
Right now, economic worries dominate the voters’ agenda, and here the numbers for the president are troubling!
Some 49% of voters trust Romney more than Obama when it comes to the economy!
And just 39% trust Obama more!
A huge gap, given that the economy is in serious trouble.
And Middle Class Voters Trust Romney More
Middle-income voters are especially likely to have more confidence in Romney.
Whereas Obama does best among those who earn less than $20,000 a year and those who earn more than $100,000 annually.
And especially troubling for the White House is the fact that,
20% of Democrats trust Romney more than Obama on the economy!
On other issues, however, Romney and Obama are essentially even and this includes health care, taxes, national security and energy.
The Present Economy Favors Romney In 2012
In a year when economic concerns trump all other issues, the present economic numbers suggest a victory for Romney.
But if the economy improves, then, confidence in the president’s economic policies, and his job approval ratings, are sure to improve as well, and he’ll be much tougher for Romney to beat.
