February 1st, 2012 | 
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Shaw's Blog: Gallup Poll–Battleground State Nightmare for Obama
fox nation Today, Gallup released their aggregate state approvals for President Obama over the entirety of 2011. His drop relative to his 2009 standing is especially stark in battleground states. Here are some of the …
Webutante: Battleground States Show Sharp Decline For Obama
Battleground States Show Sharp Decline For Obama. AS MITT ROMNEY MOPS UP IN FLORIDA TONIGHT, many of my fellow conservative commenters diss and whine about Romney's conservative qualifications, his …
The following data is from all of 2011, and 2012 is not looking any better.
The Good News For Obama
His political standing is in reasonable but not good shape in traditionally Democratic Midwestern battlegrounds such as Wisconsin and Michigan and the more Republican heartland state of Iowa where his rating is 46 approval/46 disapproval.
And his numbers in Virginia are better than those in other battleground states 45% approve, 49% disapprove.
His numbers in North Carolina 44/49 approve/disapprove and Florida 44/48 approve/disapprove and even in Georgia 45/48 approve/disapprove aren’t good, but given his overall numbers, they aren’t that bad either.
The Bad News For Obama
His job approval ratings in the other battleground states are solidly underwater however, and in many states, they are much worse than publicly perceived, mostly because of White House spin.
In Colorado, which is seen as a gateway to aggressively contesting the Southwest, Obama scored a net -12 job approval 40/52 throughout the year.
In Nevada, also seen as a major bellwether, Obama has a 41% approval rating, with 50% of respondents disapproving.
In the critical battleground state of Ohio, 50% of voters disapprove of his performance, with only 42% approving.
And in the must-win state of Pennsylvania, Obam’s job approval is underwater, with 45% approving and 48% disapproving.
More Bad News
New Mexico is seen as a Democratic-leaning state because of its voting history and its significant Hispanic population.
But Obama’s performance there, 42% favorable, 51% unfavorable, isn’t much different than his weak standing in the other Southwestern battlegrounds.
The Obama campaign argues that it has an outside shot at contesting Arizona, but his approval rating is at 40%, with 52% disapproving.
In New Hampshire, a state that John Kerry carried in 2004, Obama’s job approval is at 39%, with 54% disapproving, and it’s a state that with Romney heading the GOP ticket, is starting to look more and more out of reach.
So What Does Obama Have To Do To Win?
Based on the above numbers, the most plausible path for the president’s re-election runs through Virginia, Florida and Iowa, which isn’t a scenario that Team Obama drew up in its spin sessions, but if the polls are to be believed, then it’s likely the only way to go.
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Posted in 2012, administration, government, Liberals, politics, polls, president, presidential elections, republicans, White House
Congressional Budget Office Director Doug Elmendorf said on February 2, 2012, that projected economic growth will slow by next year and unemployment will rise before that; which is a forecast that Rep. Paul Ryan called ominous, grim and alarming.
Elmendorf laid out the latest projections on the economy and deficits before the House Budget Committee on Capitol Hill.
Ryan, R-Wis., who is chairman, raised alarm given projections that 2012 “will mark the fourth straight year of trillion-dollar deficits.”
“Trillions more dollars will be added to debt in the years ahead, putting a chilling effect on jobs creation today and committing the next generation to a diminished future,” he said.
Recent Gallup data shows, that the number of Electoral College votes that have hardened against Obama has notably increased.
In 2010, his approval rating averaged below 42% in states with 99 Electoral College votes. Now that’s up to 193.
There are also fewer states where he’s just below the 47% threshold.
In 2010, he stood between 42% and 46.9% in states with 180 Electoral College votes; now that’s down to 130.
The implication is that the number of states Obama can plausibly contest to reach 270 Electoral College votes is narrowing.
In 2010, Obama’s approval rating stood at 47% or above in New Mexico, Oregon, Iowa, Ohio and Nevada, all states he carried in 2008.
His average 2011 ratings fell below that level in all five states.