Our Changing Globe

Posts Tagged ‘America’

Finance officials from some of the world’s top economic powers, which included, the United States, Japan, Germany, France, Britain, Italy and Canada, have pledged to get their countries banks lending again, believing it to be the best way to end the world’s worst recession since the 1930s.

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and his counterparts from the world’s top seven industrialized democracies, acknowledged on Friday April 25, in a joint statement that their economies will need to be jump started in order for the global economy to rebound.

A joint statement read, “We are committed to act together to restore jobs and growth and to prevent a crisis of this magnitude from occurring again, and we will take whatever actions are necessary to bring that about. Recent data suggest that the pace of decline in our economies has slowed, and some signs of stabilization are emerging. Economic activity should begin to recover later this year amid a continued weak outlook and downside risks persist”.

A goal of raising $500 billion for an emergency lending facility was set by G-20 leaders at their London summit on April 2 and Obama has asked Congress to put up $100 billion, and Europe and Japan have pledged equivalent amounts.

Other major countries, which include China, Russia and Saudi Arabia, have not come yet honored their commitments however, because China and several other big developing countries like India want to link the support to having a bigger voice in the IMF which predicts that the global economy will shrink this year, something that’s never happened in the post World War II period.

Earlier this week the IMF called on world governments to boost stimulus spending, especially on infrastructure projects such as roads and bridges, in order to create jobs, but European nations are loathe to run up huge budget deficits and have so far resisted U.S. pleas to increase their spending.

France’s Lagarde noted, “We are in a bind, if you will. On the one hand we have to inject public money into the economy because we believe this is the strongest and best multiplier. At the same time, in the medium and long term, we need to restore the sustainability of public finance”.

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The American consumer cut back so much during the last quarter of 2008, that two recent reports showing that a slight leveling off had occurred in February and March caused many supposed economic pundits to suggest that a bottoming out had occurred and that it was possible to see a light at the end of the tunnel.

The cause for such jubilation?

The Commerce Department announced a rise of 0.2% in consumer spending in February, and the University of Michigan’s index of consumer confidence edged up slightly in March, whilst remaining at near historic lows.

Richard T. Curtin, who has run the University of Michigan survey for decades, said in a just published report, “The good news is that the free fall in confidence has ended. The bad news is that consumers expect their financial situation to remain dismal for the rest of 2009″.

Not only were the increases miniscule, but there were obvious reasons for them. Spending was higher due to higher gasoline prices, and the fact that personal income fell by 0.2% in February got scant attention, even though it most likely means that consumers will have to cut back even further on purchases.

House prices are still falling, the stock market is way down for the year and unemployment continues to rise, but there are a number of economists who believe that consumers who are still delaying the purchase of major items such as a house, a car, or new appliances will soon be forced into buying them, which will in turn create a bounce in the broader economy.

It is totally unclear to me however why the consumer will suddenly feel that he must buy a new car, a new house or a new appliance etc. and I would strongly agree with Howard Davidowitz, who is the chairman of the retail consultancy Davidowitz & Associates who said, “When you’ve got exploding job losses like we have, how would that lead to any improvement in consumer spending? If you don’t have jobs, you cannot possibly have a change in psychology”.

Perhaps ironically, if the consumer’s confidence and appetite do grow, it could well create new problems because the purchasing of big-ticket items in large numbers could create a snap-back in gross domestic product, followed by another recession because of business conditions that are still extremely weak, companies that are still not investing, and weakness in the rest of the world’s economies.

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