A 13% decline to an annual rate of 458,000 was led by a 46% decline in multi-family starts, compared to March when builders broke ground on 525,000 homes.

Building permits, which are a sign of future construction fell by 3.3% to a record low rate of 494,000 and taken together the two declines suggest that house prices have not yet reached rock-bottom.

So called experts had forecast an increase to a 520,000 annual pace from a 510,000 previously estimated pace the prior month, and they also forecast that building permits would increase to 530,000 annual rate.

But to give credit where it’s due, Maxwell Clarke, who is the chief U.S. economist at IDEAglobal Inc said even before the report came out that, “Weakness in housing continues. Declining prospects for developers should continue to act as a drag on investment and overall output in 2009″.

Overall the housing market is showing some signs of stabilization and confidence amongst U.S. homebuilders in May increased to the highest level since September, and although sales of new homes are still 70% below their 2005 highs, they have risen slightly from their record January lows.

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Why Banks Are Using Bulldozers on Foreclosed Homes | The …

curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com8/1/11

UPDATED (5:29 PM) Banks have a new remedy for America's ailing housing market: bulldozers. There are nearly 1.7 million homes in the U.S. in some state of foreclosure. Banks already own some of these homes and will …

Council to bulldoze 175 homes in Gateshead – Chronicle News …

www.chroniclelive.co.uk12/6/11

YET more families are being forced from their homes as Gateshead Council flattens a third housing estate.

The growing number of abandoned properties across the country has caused property values and tax revenues to drop substantially, which in turn has led to fewer buyers and a growing number of vacant properties.

As of March 31, about 4 million homes had been empty for at least three months, a higher figure than in 2008, and about 3% of all U.S. homes.

Many cities and States, are themselves struggling with potential bankruptcy, and they’re finding it difficult to pay the firemen and policeman who are expected to deal with the increasing number of abandoned homes.

All is not doom and gloom however, and an innovative solution is now rapidly spreading across the country which entails local governments bulldozing abandoned properties, and using the newly reclaimed land for parks and playgrounds.

It’s a seemingly win-win situation, because it not only pleases local residents, but also creates jobs, and the icing on the cake is that the federal government is funding the action.

Last summer, Congress allocated $3.9 billion in emergency funds for cities to acquire and rehabilitate foreclosed properties, and a further $2 billion was assigned after Cleveland and other cities lobbied Congress.

In fact, Cleveland, which has over 10,000 abandoned homes, says it will use more than half of its $25.5 million stabilization fund to demolish more than 1,700 houses.

In addition to Cleveland, Cincinnati, Detroit, Minneapolis and Youngstown all say they have plans to use at least one-third of their neighborhood-stabilization funds for demolition.

Housing supply presently stands at about nine months, which is almost double the historic level of around five months, and approximately one in four home-buyers is in arrears on their mortgages, both of which sadly suggest the appearance of more and more abandoned homes, but happily, more jobs and more parks and playgrounds.

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Most economists had predicted that retail sales would rise by 0.2% after a 1% decrease a month earlier.

Bill Cheney, who is the chief economist at John Hancock Financial Services Inc. said in an interview that, “The second quarter is going to be tough. Consumers are losing their jobs, concerned about losing their jobs and losing wealth”.

Mike Niemira who is the chief economist at ICSC was a little bit less downbeat and said, “We’re still working our way through the slowdown. I think it will get better as the year progresses. The month of May will still be tough and I suspect by the summer that things will be a little broader in terms of the improvement”.

Clothing sales fell by 0.5% and sales at general-merchandise stores fell by 0.1%.

Auto sales unexpectedly gained by 0.2% after dropping by 2% in March, with automobiles selling at a 9.3 million annual pace in April, compared with a 9.9 million rate in March.

Chrysler, whose U.S. whose sales were down by 48% from the same month last year, started offering rebates of up to $6,000 on May 6 and the offers will continue until the end of the month.

The Labor Department reported last week that payrolls fell by 539,000 workers last month making it the smallest drop since October, but it took the unemployment rate to 8.9%, which is the highest level since 1983 and economists expect it to average 9.6% in 2010.

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Median home-sale prices in March were around $7,000 higher than in February.
But they are still far lower than they were a year ago.

Some banks have started returning bailout money amid reports of better than expected profits in the first quarter of 2009, and the stock market has rebounded since early March.
But, the value of the Dow Jones Industrial Average is still at around 60% of what is was a year ago.

The administration claims that 2,000 new transportation projects have already been approved under the stimulus package.
But the construction sector lost 626,000 jobs between December 2008 and March 2009.

And whilst we’d truly love to believe that the economic crisis has bottomed out, the IMF (International Monetary Fund) estimates that the global economy will contract by 1.3% in 2009 and the U.S. economy by 2.8% which would be the most since 1946.

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The report lists a total of 4.2 million vacant homes for rent, and 4.9 million seasonal properties that were only used for a part of the year, and says that the number of people that own their own residences declined for the third straight quarter to 67.3%.

Foreclosures were included in a part of the Census Bureau, that also included vacation homes intended for year-round use, as well as homes that were unoccupied because they are under renovation, and there were 7.9 million such properties vacant in the first quarter, which is up from 7.5 million a year earlier.

What might seem odd however, is that the ‘percentage’ rate of all U.S. homes empty and for sale, known as the ‘vacancy rate’, actually fell to 2.7 percent in the first quarter, and the reason that it is thought to have fallen, is either because the number of homes on the market declined because they were sold, or because their owners gave up trying to market them, and according to National Association of Realtors, the inventory of homes on the market averaged 3.7 million in each of 2009′s first three months.

The world financial crisis, plus falling home prices seem to have pretty much destroyed homebuyer confidence, and the percentage of people who said they plan to buy a home in the next six months, dropped to a 26-year low in March, and the decline in real estate prices is expected to continue into 2010.

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Freddie Mac reported that the rate for a 30-year fixed home loan fell to 4.80 percent from 4.82 percent a week earlier, whilst the 15-year fixed rate remained unchanged at 4.48 percent.

The central bank is attempting to drive down interest rates by cutting the supply of outstanding mortgage bonds, thereby boosting their price and lowering their yields, thus allowing banks to reduce their rates on new mortgages, whilst continuing to sell mortgage securities at a profit.

The not so good news is that sales of previously owned U.S. homes fell in March, after climbing by the biggest amount in more than five years just one month earlier.

Purchases decreased by 3% to an annual rate of 4.57 million, which was lower than the 4.71 million which was forecast, and prices were down 12% from a year ago, with distressed properties accounting for about 50% of all sales.

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The February prices were still 6.5% lower than a year earlier and were pretty much in line with estimates, and also a recent statement by Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Donald Kohn, “As demand firms, and once inventories of houses, and a broad range of goods are brought into line with sales, economic activity should begin to stabilize,”

The Mortgage Bankers Association’s index of applications to purchase a home or refinance a loan increased by 5.3% last week and a National Association of Realtors report notes that home sales rose by 5.1% in February.

The California and Florida metropolitan areas led the U.S. in foreclosures in the first quarter of this year, and Bruce Norris, who is a principal with the Norris Group said, “Whatever damage has been done in California is only going to get worse because there is a glut of homes owned by lenders that aren’t yet on the market. These homes are like a shadow inventory that is likely to drag down prices further when they come onto the market”.

Norris’s comments are supported by comments on the National Association of Realtors website which states, “U.S. home prices probably will fall 5.1% this year to $188,500, less than the 9.3% plunge in 2008, according to the real estate group. Home resales probably will rise 1% to 4.96 million after a 13% drop last year”.

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PMI, is the second largest U.S. mortgage insurer and the company’s chief economist, David Berson, said “21 of the 50 biggest U.S. metropolitan areas have more than a 75% chance of lower home prices in two years. Six others have more than a 50% chance. Prices will lag because of the large number of homes for sale and those that are vacant but not yet on the market, and we’ll see sales start to recover before the job market”.

The present economic collapse was caused by subprime lending to the riskiest U.S. mortgage borrowers, which in turn fueled a five-year housing boom and drove the median U.S. home price to an all-time high of $230,000 in 2006. The housing collapse led to more than $1 trillion in write-downs and credit losses, by the financial institutions that packaged the toxic loans into securities, and then sold them to investors.

Stats issued by the Chicago-based National Association of Realtors show however, that a record number of foreclosures have so far forced overall prices down by 28%, bringing the average price of a house down to $165,400.

Berson went on to say that, “The ten areas with the highest probability of lower prices in 2010, each with a 99 percent chance, include Miami, Fort Lauderdale, Tampa, Orlando and Jacksonville in Florida; Los Angeles, Riverside and Santa Ana in California; Las Vegas and Phoenix. Risky lending and speculators in “sand states” led to rapid property appreciation that is now correcting. The suburbs of New York and D.C. are high-cost areas that had substantial run-ups in prices. They are the next group down from the sand states”.

The city most at risk is New Jersey, and the Edison-New Brunswick area has an 89%, and Newark an 84% likelihood of lower prices over the next two years. Nassau-Suffolk in New York has a 78%; Washington an 88% and Baltimore has an 84% chance.

The areas that are least likely to suffer a drop in house prices are Pittsburgh; Cleveland; Columbus, Ohio; Dallas; Houston and Memphis, Tennessee which is mostly because prices didn’t surge so much or at all during the boom.

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The cause for such jubilation?

The Commerce Department announced a rise of 0.2% in consumer spending in February, and the University of Michigan’s index of consumer confidence edged up slightly in March, whilst remaining at near historic lows.

Richard T. Curtin, who has run the University of Michigan survey for decades, said in a just published report, “The good news is that the free fall in confidence has ended. The bad news is that consumers expect their financial situation to remain dismal for the rest of 2009″.

House prices are still falling, the stock market is way down for the year and unemployment continues to rise, but there are a number of economists who believe that consumers who are still delaying the purchase of major items such as a house, a car, or new appliances will soon be forced into buying them, which will in turn create a bounce in the broader economy.

It is totally unclear to me however why the consumer will suddenly feel that he must buy a new car, a new house or a new appliance etc. and I would strongly agree with Howard Davidowitz, who is the chairman of the retail consultancy Davidowitz & Associates who said, “When you’ve got exploding job losses like we have, how would that lead to any improvement in consumer spending? If you don’t have jobs, you cannot possibly have a change in psychology”.

Perhaps ironically, if the consumer’s confidence and appetite do grow, it could well create new problems because the purchasing of big-ticket items in large numbers could create a snap-back in gross domestic product, followed by another recession because of business conditions that are still extremely weak, companies that are still not investing, and weakness in the rest of the world’s economies.

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A breakdown of the figures showed that re-sales of single-family homes decreased by 4.7 % to an annual rate of 4.05 million and sales of condos and co-ops dropped by 10 % to 440,000. Purchases declined in three of four regions with the Northeast showing the biggest drop which was 15% but the pace of sales was unchanged in the West.

Many economists forecast re-sales would rise to around a 4.79 million annual rate from 4.74 million in December and estimates ranged anywhere from 4.5 million to 4.91 million but sales were down by 8.6% compared with a year earlier and the number of unsold homes on the market at the end of January represented a 9.6 month inventory based on the current rate of sales.

Carl Riccadonna, who is a senior economist at ‘Deutsche Bank Securities’ stated, “It’s going to be very difficult for the housing market to find its footing with the unemployment rate continuing to trend higher. There is a huge inventory overhang, so we need prices to come down further”, and Ethan Harris, who is the co-head of economic research at ‘Barclays Capital Inc.’ said, “This is actually a very disappointing set of numbers. We’re still in this phase of the recession where it’s really kind of a dramatic pulling back in purchases of big-ticket items, due to a tremendous loss of confidence in the economy”.

The competition from distressed sales is hurting builders and Ken Campbell who is the Chief Executive Officer of ‘Standard Pacific Corp’ issued a statement saying, “We saw our sales absorption rate, our cancellation rate and general traffic levels deteriorate beyond normal seasonal changes” and went on to say that he “expected home prices to decline further”.

Federal Bank Chairman, Ben S. Bernanke stated yesterday that the U.S. economy is in a “severe contraction” and warned that the recession may last well into 2010.

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