A 13% decline to an annual rate of 458,000 was led by a 46% decline in multi-family starts, compared to March when builders broke ground on 525,000 homes.

Building permits, which are a sign of future construction fell by 3.3% to a record low rate of 494,000 and taken together the two declines suggest that house prices have not yet reached rock-bottom.

So called experts had forecast an increase to a 520,000 annual pace from a 510,000 previously estimated pace the prior month, and they also forecast that building permits would increase to 530,000 annual rate.

But to give credit where it’s due, Maxwell Clarke, who is the chief U.S. economist at IDEAglobal Inc said even before the report came out that, “Weakness in housing continues. Declining prospects for developers should continue to act as a drag on investment and overall output in 2009″.

Overall the housing market is showing some signs of stabilization and confidence amongst U.S. homebuilders in May increased to the highest level since September, and although sales of new homes are still 70% below their 2005 highs, they have risen slightly from their record January lows.

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Why Banks Are Using Bulldozers on Foreclosed Homes | The …

curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com8/1/11

UPDATED (5:29 PM) Banks have a new remedy for America's ailing housing market: bulldozers. There are nearly 1.7 million homes in the U.S. in some state of foreclosure. Banks already own some of these homes and will …

Council to bulldoze 175 homes in Gateshead – Chronicle News …

www.chroniclelive.co.uk12/6/11

YET more families are being forced from their homes as Gateshead Council flattens a third housing estate.

The growing number of abandoned properties across the country has caused property values and tax revenues to drop substantially, which in turn has led to fewer buyers and a growing number of vacant properties.

As of March 31, about 4 million homes had been empty for at least three months, a higher figure than in 2008, and about 3% of all U.S. homes.

Many cities and States, are themselves struggling with potential bankruptcy, and they’re finding it difficult to pay the firemen and policeman who are expected to deal with the increasing number of abandoned homes.

All is not doom and gloom however, and an innovative solution is now rapidly spreading across the country which entails local governments bulldozing abandoned properties, and using the newly reclaimed land for parks and playgrounds.

It’s a seemingly win-win situation, because it not only pleases local residents, but also creates jobs, and the icing on the cake is that the federal government is funding the action.

Last summer, Congress allocated $3.9 billion in emergency funds for cities to acquire and rehabilitate foreclosed properties, and a further $2 billion was assigned after Cleveland and other cities lobbied Congress.

In fact, Cleveland, which has over 10,000 abandoned homes, says it will use more than half of its $25.5 million stabilization fund to demolish more than 1,700 houses.

In addition to Cleveland, Cincinnati, Detroit, Minneapolis and Youngstown all say they have plans to use at least one-third of their neighborhood-stabilization funds for demolition.

Housing supply presently stands at about nine months, which is almost double the historic level of around five months, and approximately one in four home-buyers is in arrears on their mortgages, both of which sadly suggest the appearance of more and more abandoned homes, but happily, more jobs and more parks and playgrounds.

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www.clucerf.org1/10/12

As early as the 1950s, Mundell proposed an economic policy program of tight monetary policy to stabilize the value of the currency and low tax rates to stimulate economic activity. During the late … The Reagan Scenario included a sharp drop in inflation, a recession in 1982 due to tight monetary policy, passage of the Kemp Roth tax cuts and an economic boom starting in 1983. … Inflation and interest rates are much lower and tax rates are lower as well. While a high …

The hidden dangers of low interest rates | David Cay Johnston

blogs.reuters.com1/10/12

Low rates also come at a cost, cutting income to older Americans and to pension funds. This forces retirees to eat into principal, may put more pressure on welfare programs for the elderly, and … If rates return to, say, 6.64 percent, the level they were in 2000, one year's interest costs would equal the individual income taxes for all of 2011 plus the first few weeks of 2012. Last week , rates took a step in that direction. The yield on the 10-year bond, a benchmark for other …

President Obama’s recent claim to homeowners, that refinancing their mortgage loans at a lower rate, equates to a tax cut, doesn’t ring true for many tax experts.

Obama said at a recent press conference that the housing plan his administration had launched, had “already contributed to a spike in the number of homeowners who are refinancing their mortgages, which is the equivalent of another tax cut. The main message we want to send today is that there are 7 to 9 million people across the country who right now could be taking advantage of lower mortgage rates and that is money in their pocket”.

What Obama failed to mention however is that unlike the housing boom that led to the current financial crisis, this time, only borrowers with strong credit ratings and stable jobs will be able to save money if they refinance.

Obama’s announcement caused many tax analysts, including Gil Charney, who is an analyst for The Tax Institute at H&R Block to shout “foul”;

“While there could be overall savings by refinancing and lower monthly payments, there also could be reduced tax benefits as less interest is paid. Also refinancing could extend the period before the mortgage is fully paid off, so this might not be desirable for someone who wants to be mortgage-free. Therefore, someone about to make a financial decision should take their complete financial picture into account, not just their tax situation”.

In fairness to Obama, some analysts like Mark Steber, who is vice president of tax resources at Jackson Hewitt Tax Service did express a more supportive viewpoint, “While generally there is no tax advantage to refinancing at a lower rate, an individual can save on the total out of pocket costs each year over the life of the loan. Though a tax bill will actually increase after refinancing, the increase in taxes may be less than half of the total difference in interest paid, so the taxpayer may save more money than their taxes increase, therefore resulting in net savings”.

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The first program, which should be up and running within a month is intended to help borrowers that have second mortgages stay out of foreclosure, and it will make cash amounts up to $12,000 available to servicers, investors and borrowers who modify loan terms, and a government spokesperson said that as many as a two million participants in the mortgage-modification program may be eligible for the second-lien assistance.

An example of how the plan would work, would be borrower who had a $250,000 interest only, first mortgage and was paying 6% interest. If the housing expenses were equal to 40% of the borrowers income, then the government would pay $2,625 per year, for five years in order to reduce the payments. Moreover, if that same borrower also had a $43,942 second mortgage and was paying 8.6% interest, then the government might, and I say “might”, pay one half of the $2,336 annual cost for five years.

Overall reaction to the plans seems favorable, with Laurie Goodman who is an analyst at the Amherst Securities Group LP saying, “The new measures may ease mortgage investors’ concerns that the biggest banks and servicers would be tempted to rework too many loans under the program, in order to bolster their home- equity portfolios. Certainly, it appears that the Treasury has listened to first-lien investors and the announcement goes a very long way toward addressing their objections”.

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said in a statement, “Ensuring that responsible homeowners can afford to stay in their homes is critical to stabilizing the housing market, which is in turn critical to stabilizing our financial system”.

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The report lists a total of 4.2 million vacant homes for rent, and 4.9 million seasonal properties that were only used for a part of the year, and says that the number of people that own their own residences declined for the third straight quarter to 67.3%.

Foreclosures were included in a part of the Census Bureau, that also included vacation homes intended for year-round use, as well as homes that were unoccupied because they are under renovation, and there were 7.9 million such properties vacant in the first quarter, which is up from 7.5 million a year earlier.

What might seem odd however, is that the ‘percentage’ rate of all U.S. homes empty and for sale, known as the ‘vacancy rate’, actually fell to 2.7 percent in the first quarter, and the reason that it is thought to have fallen, is either because the number of homes on the market declined because they were sold, or because their owners gave up trying to market them, and according to National Association of Realtors, the inventory of homes on the market averaged 3.7 million in each of 2009′s first three months.

The world financial crisis, plus falling home prices seem to have pretty much destroyed homebuyer confidence, and the percentage of people who said they plan to buy a home in the next six months, dropped to a 26-year low in March, and the decline in real estate prices is expected to continue into 2010.

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Freddie Mac reported that the rate for a 30-year fixed home loan fell to 4.80 percent from 4.82 percent a week earlier, whilst the 15-year fixed rate remained unchanged at 4.48 percent.

The central bank is attempting to drive down interest rates by cutting the supply of outstanding mortgage bonds, thereby boosting their price and lowering their yields, thus allowing banks to reduce their rates on new mortgages, whilst continuing to sell mortgage securities at a profit.

The not so good news is that sales of previously owned U.S. homes fell in March, after climbing by the biggest amount in more than five years just one month earlier.

Purchases decreased by 3% to an annual rate of 4.57 million, which was lower than the 4.71 million which was forecast, and prices were down 12% from a year ago, with distressed properties accounting for about 50% of all sales.

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The February prices were still 6.5% lower than a year earlier and were pretty much in line with estimates, and also a recent statement by Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Donald Kohn, “As demand firms, and once inventories of houses, and a broad range of goods are brought into line with sales, economic activity should begin to stabilize,”

The Mortgage Bankers Association’s index of applications to purchase a home or refinance a loan increased by 5.3% last week and a National Association of Realtors report notes that home sales rose by 5.1% in February.

The California and Florida metropolitan areas led the U.S. in foreclosures in the first quarter of this year, and Bruce Norris, who is a principal with the Norris Group said, “Whatever damage has been done in California is only going to get worse because there is a glut of homes owned by lenders that aren’t yet on the market. These homes are like a shadow inventory that is likely to drag down prices further when they come onto the market”.

Norris’s comments are supported by comments on the National Association of Realtors website which states, “U.S. home prices probably will fall 5.1% this year to $188,500, less than the 9.3% plunge in 2008, according to the real estate group. Home resales probably will rise 1% to 4.96 million after a 13% drop last year”.

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After Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said, “the vast majority of the nation’s banks have enough capital”, U.S. stocks advanced the most in almost two weeks, and Walter “Bucky” Hellwig, who helps oversee $30 billion at Morgan Asset said, “Geithner’s comments that most banks are OK got money coming back into stocks because that pretty much allays yesterday’s fears about stress tests and banks having to raise more capital”.

Even General Motors Corp. rose 2.4 percent to $1.70 after a government auditor said the Treasury will supply the automaker with $5 billion in additional aid.

Meanwhile, David Heupel, who helps manage $60 billion at Thrivent Financial for Lutherans said, “There are still signs of a tough economic environment, but companies that have really cut down their expenses are starting to see a little glimmer of life”.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac who are the biggest U.S. mortgage-finance companies, either owning or guaranteeing 56% of all U.S. home loans, just announced that mortgage delinquencies among their “most creditworthy homeowners”, rose by 50% in just one month, and they blamed the fall on both drops in income and too much debt, with 34% of borrowers telling Fannie and Freddie that they were earning less money, and around 20% citing too much debt as their reason for missing their mortgage payments, with a further 8.1% blaming unemployment.

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The names of banks and what they’ll be getting are;

• JPMorgan Chase – $3.6 billion in subsidy and incentive payments
• Wells Fargo – $2.9 billion
• Citigroup – $2 billion
• GMAC Mortgage, $633 million
• Saxon Mortgage Services, $407 million
• Select Portfolio Servicing, $376 million

The government’s program was announced on February 18th but specific details have only just become available, and the delay caused major frustration amongst housing counselors and distressed homebuyers.

The stated aim of the program is to help as many as nine million borrowers to stay in their homes, and Wells Fargo recently said in a statement, “We view this modification program as yet another incremental opportunity for thousands of homeowners to preserve and maintain the dream of homeownership”.

The government has so far allocated $75 billion, to subsidize a part of the payment reduction, and it will also provide tens of thousands of additional dollars in incentives to participating servicers and borrowers.

Servicers will receive $1,000 for each loan modification, plus another $1,000 a year for three years if the borrower stays current. On top of this, the government will provide an additional $500 to servicers, and $1,500 to mortgage holders if they modify their at-risk loans before the borrower falls behind.

Homebuyers will get up to $1,000 a year for five years if they keep up with their payments, and the money will be used to lower their loan principals.

When asked “Where all this money come from?”, Treasury spokesman Andrew Williams answered, “We’re confident we’ll have enough money”.

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PMI, is the second largest U.S. mortgage insurer and the company’s chief economist, David Berson, said “21 of the 50 biggest U.S. metropolitan areas have more than a 75% chance of lower home prices in two years. Six others have more than a 50% chance. Prices will lag because of the large number of homes for sale and those that are vacant but not yet on the market, and we’ll see sales start to recover before the job market”.

The present economic collapse was caused by subprime lending to the riskiest U.S. mortgage borrowers, which in turn fueled a five-year housing boom and drove the median U.S. home price to an all-time high of $230,000 in 2006. The housing collapse led to more than $1 trillion in write-downs and credit losses, by the financial institutions that packaged the toxic loans into securities, and then sold them to investors.

Stats issued by the Chicago-based National Association of Realtors show however, that a record number of foreclosures have so far forced overall prices down by 28%, bringing the average price of a house down to $165,400.

Berson went on to say that, “The ten areas with the highest probability of lower prices in 2010, each with a 99 percent chance, include Miami, Fort Lauderdale, Tampa, Orlando and Jacksonville in Florida; Los Angeles, Riverside and Santa Ana in California; Las Vegas and Phoenix. Risky lending and speculators in “sand states” led to rapid property appreciation that is now correcting. The suburbs of New York and D.C. are high-cost areas that had substantial run-ups in prices. They are the next group down from the sand states”.

The city most at risk is New Jersey, and the Edison-New Brunswick area has an 89%, and Newark an 84% likelihood of lower prices over the next two years. Nassau-Suffolk in New York has a 78%; Washington an 88% and Baltimore has an 84% chance.

The areas that are least likely to suffer a drop in house prices are Pittsburgh; Cleveland; Columbus, Ohio; Dallas; Houston and Memphis, Tennessee which is mostly because prices didn’t surge so much or at all during the boom.

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