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I read an article by Tony Blankley in ‘The Washington Times’ today wherein the author snuck in the phrase, “content to leave the White House eight years from now”.

It’s interesting that Tony Blankley imagines Obama serving two terms when he has almost zero chance of doing so unless laws are changed to make it more difficult for the Republicans to win.



I am not suggesting that Obama has so little chance because of what he will or will not do but because the odds are so severely stacked against him.

Everything that I have read suggests that the economy will continue to worsen, that more jobs will be lost and that many more foreclosures will occur and no one is suggesting that something positive will be felt for at least two years.

So in two years we can expect democrats to have their numbers severely slashed and in four years we can anticipate them being punished in a general election.

Add to the above; Iran, Afghanistan, Iraq, Israel and other trouble spots; the price of oil which is bound to increase and other calamities that are just waiting for a time and place to happen and it’s almost impossible to envision Obama serving a second term.



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There are hopes and intentions and then there are the carved in stone realities that need to be overcome in order to achieve them.

Like all politicians and perhaps the ones that reach the highest echelons in particular, Obama most likely hopes to leave a lasting and favorable legacy at the end of his four or eight year tenure.

He will inherit amongst other things the worst financial crisis since the thirties, an Iran that is close to being able to create nuclear weapons, wars in Iraq and Iran, dwindling oil supplies, rising unemployment, climate change issues and the probability that Israel will elect a right wing leader in February 2009, and making things even more difficult are the sky high expectations of the American people and much of the world.

A possible upside to the seemingly endless list of crises is perhaps the need for bipartisan action that will be needed to help solve some of them and this may buy Obama and his administration a little time, but not much because the democrats in congress will be eager to act after waiting eight years in the wings. The most likely things to get pushed through at an early stage are the ‘State Children’s Health Insurance Program’ which has considerable Republican support, embryonic-stem-cell research, a bill that that would overturn a limited Supreme Court decision on women’s ability to sue for wage discrimination, and some cross-party cooperation can also be expected in the area of the financial crisis.


The democratic majority should not be viewed as a homogeneous group however because it is made up of liberal, moderate, and conservative blocs, some of whom want an almost immediate withdrawal from Iraq, others that would prefer a staged withdrawal and still others that represent black, Hispanic and other interest groups. Barney Frank for example, would like to reduce defense spending by 25% but Charles Rangel wants to re-establish the draft, John Conyers would like to see certain Bush administration officials indicted for war crimes and Henry Waxman wants to see steep energy taxes to combat global warming.
Moreover, it’s perhaps worth noting that Presidents whose parties controlled both chambers of congress in the second half of the last century had their initiatives passed into law only fifty three percent of the time.

Clinton’s second chief of staff, Leon Panetta issued a statement saying, “Not in my lifetime has a president confronted such a series of very serious crises that are facing the country. He’s also going to have to appeal to the public’s willingness to sacrifice in order to rally them around some of the tough decisions he is going to have to make” and Mr. Obama who understands this only too well, said on Tuesday night, “The road ahead will be long. Our climb will be steep. We may not get there in one year or even one term, but America — I have never been more hopeful than I am tonight that we will get there. I promise you: We as a people will get there”.



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