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Supply-Side Economics | The CERF Blog

www.clucerf.org1/10/12

As early as the 1950s, Mundell proposed an economic policy program of tight monetary policy to stabilize the value of the currency and low tax rates to stimulate economic activity. During the late … The Reagan Scenario included a sharp drop in inflation, a recession in 1982 due to tight monetary policy, passage of the Kemp Roth tax cuts and an economic boom starting in 1983. … Inflation and interest rates are much lower and tax rates are lower as well. While a high …

The hidden dangers of low interest rates | David Cay Johnston

blogs.reuters.com1/10/12

Low rates also come at a cost, cutting income to older Americans and to pension funds. This forces retirees to eat into principal, may put more pressure on welfare programs for the elderly, and … If rates return to, say, 6.64 percent, the level they were in 2000, one year's interest costs would equal the individual income taxes for all of 2011 plus the first few weeks of 2012. Last week , rates took a step in that direction. The yield on the 10-year bond, a benchmark for other …

President Obama’s recent claim to homeowners, that refinancing their mortgage loans at a lower rate, equates to a tax cut, doesn’t ring true for many tax experts.

Obama said at a recent press conference that the housing plan his administration had launched, had “already contributed to a spike in the number of homeowners who are refinancing their mortgages, which is the equivalent of another tax cut. The main message we want to send today is that there are 7 to 9 million people across the country who right now could be taking advantage of lower mortgage rates and that is money in their pocket”.

What Obama failed to mention however is that unlike the housing boom that led to the current financial crisis, this time, only borrowers with strong credit ratings and stable jobs will be able to save money if they refinance.

Obama’s announcement caused many tax analysts, including Gil Charney, who is an analyst for The Tax Institute at H&R Block to shout “foul”;

“While there could be overall savings by refinancing and lower monthly payments, there also could be reduced tax benefits as less interest is paid. Also refinancing could extend the period before the mortgage is fully paid off, so this might not be desirable for someone who wants to be mortgage-free. Therefore, someone about to make a financial decision should take their complete financial picture into account, not just their tax situation”.

In fairness to Obama, some analysts like Mark Steber, who is vice president of tax resources at Jackson Hewitt Tax Service did express a more supportive viewpoint, “While generally there is no tax advantage to refinancing at a lower rate, an individual can save on the total out of pocket costs each year over the life of the loan. Though a tax bill will actually increase after refinancing, the increase in taxes may be less than half of the total difference in interest paid, so the taxpayer may save more money than their taxes increase, therefore resulting in net savings”.

The Federal Reserve noted in a survey of loan officers that was released on Monday, May 6, that demand for prime mortgages rose in the first quarter for the first time since early 2007, and this was in spite of the fact that many banks tightened their requirements for home loans.

The increase in demand comes as 30-year mortgage rates fell to an average 4.78% last week.

Other details of the survey state that, about one half of U.S. banks tightened their lending standards on prime mortgages, which is up from about 45% from that given in a survey that was released in early February.

65% of banks reported having tightened their standards on non-traditional mortgages, such as adjustable-rate loans with multiple payment options, up from 50% in the last survey, and nearly 60% of banks said they tightened their requirement on credit card loans in the past three months.

The Fed’s survey was based on responses from fifty three domestic banks and twenty three foreign banks.

Additional good news was also reported by the National Association of Realtors which announced that its Pending Home Sales Index showed that pending sales of existing homes climbed upward in March, making two consecutive months of increases.

The NAR attributed a rise of 3.2% in signed contracts to “a flood of first-time home-buyers taking advantage of excellent mortgage interest rates”.